Thread by @GREENESJ333

#mustread
Roger Froikin wrote:
"CORONAVIRUS AND HONESTY

THERE ARE CERTAIN FACTS, WE ALL HAVE TO FACE.

A. This did start in #China. It is not racist to say so. It is fact. But no one in China wanted this. It was not done as an attack on the world’s economies or peoples. 1)

1)

Several countries have experimental laboratories working on dangerous things, not in order to use them as weapons, but to develop countermeasures. What happened in China was an accident, probably connected to maybe one person’s bad judgement. 2)

The problem that China is responsible for — is that they kept this problem a secret for more than a month, and thatvcontributed to the spread of this horrible disease.
3)

B. The sad fact is that in the world today, w/multinational business & travel, problems spread worldwide & they spread quickly. Information denied by China has led to limited and slow responses until too late, until it spread, along with travelers, to other areas of China, ..4)

...and from there to other nations. As long as we want the advantages of international business and travel, this problem will be with us, making availability of information, provided quickly, crucial to avoiding tragedy.
5)

C. Whether we like it or not, this virus & the effort to fight it, will damage every economy in the world. Those nations w/weaker economies, greater debt to productive capacity ratios, will be hurt worse & will recover more slowly...6)

than economies that had full employment and strong economic basics before the virus. China’s economy was in trouble before December, and this “hit” to their economy will be very hard to recover from, but they are already past the worst and reopening. 7)

Iran will have serious problems for a long time. Europe, and particularly Italy and Spain, will go from no growth to negative growth for a while. Recovery will depend everywhere on the basic strengths of each nation’s pre-virus economy.
8)

D. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS DOOM & GLOOM PREDICTIONS THAT PROVIDE A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION LONG TERM — BECAUSE THE FACTS ARE THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF REASONS TO ASSUME THAT THINGS WILL BE OK LONG TERM. 9)

Recovery, everywhere, depends on the degree to which the public is positive, not negative. Negativity is the enemy as much as coronavirus is. 10)

E. Don't ignore the issue of "Pent-up-demand". In previous similar emergencies, emergency caused recessions were followed, in many countries, by explosions in pent-up-demand acting like economic booms. 11)

People who are stuck at home, who are not shopping, who are not taking their vacations, will be delaying things for now, but they will start spending again." 12)

Addendum:
"I expect the USA, UK, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia to rebound rather quickly once the crisis passes. I also expect China, Italy, Spain, France, and maybe the entire EU to recover much more slowly and painfully. 13)

In fact, the best news is from China. They have managed to start their rebound and in 2 1/2 months. That destoys the doom and gloom preduictions we are all hearing from the media." 14)

@threadreaderapp please unroll
#mustread
Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote:
"CORONAVIRUS AND HONESTY

THERE ARE CERTAIN FACTS, WE ALL HAVE TO FACE.

A. This did start in #China. It is not racist to say so. It is fact. But no one in China wanted this....