Thread by @petermbenglish

Thanks for this, @TimHarford.
ft.com/content/e00120…

Part of the issue is that people will continue to catch Covid-19 until we get treatment/prevention. In the long term, many of us will get it. We can lockdown for a time, but not indefinitely.
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The lockdown is about flattening the curve - not reducing the overall number of cases. And that means it's not about reducing entirely the overall deaths from Covid-19: many people will die if they get it, regardless of the care they receive.
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The point of the lockdown is spreading cases out, so that services can cope. So that those whose lives could be saved by intensive medical care, ventilators etc., don't die because all of the available beds/doctors/ventilators were being used for other Covid-19 patients.
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It's so that people with other conditions who need medical care can access it, and aren't pushed out by the need to treat all the Covid-19 cases.

(In public health "need" - "ability to benefit from")
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So... we may not actually prevent all that many deaths through the lockdown. The benefits in spreading out the cases - and deaths - are real; but it's not all that much about deaths avoided.
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Health and wealth are so closely related that any harm to the economy will inevitably harm health and cause deaths. These harms and deaths need to be factored in when judging when and for how long to lock down...
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Of course, the economic harms could be mitigated by better income distribution, universal basic income, etc. Which is where a public health expert like me needs to work closely with economic experts like you, and with politicians.
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Isolation is, in itself, harmful to physical and mental health, and this has to be considered. (I've been quite cross about the disproportionate controls on exercise and enjoying outdoor spaces - where this can be done safely).
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@threadreaderapp unroll

ps - case fatality rate (CFR) is a slippery concept - it's so dependent on getting the denominator right, and if you only count people who test positive...

Infection fatality rate (IFR) can only be estimated, but is more like 0.1% on current estimates.