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NEW: Monday 30 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories

• US deaths doubling every 3 days, as Fauci predicts over 100k US deaths. How different could things have been if US had locked down like China?
• UK still tracking Italy

Live version: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
All countries’ death toll trajectories:
• Increasingly looks like India tracking S Korea 🙏
• Australia’s curve tracking Japan 👍
• 38 countries now shown here, more every day

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Death toll trajectories in subnational regions:
• NY still setting new records for death toll after x days
• Spanish and French mortality curves beginning to flatten
• Very different stories in different US states

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Latest case trajectories for major countries:

• US cases continue to soar. Unquestionably the worst outbreak in the world

Reporting from @yuanfenyang & co on whether you can trust the Chinese data: ft.com/content/4aa352…
This chart now shows ALL countries with several days of data over 100 confirmed cases. 69 countries shown (Iran removed for data quality reasons)

Live versions of all charts here, free to read: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more
And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:
Please email john.burn-murdoch@ft.com with feedback, requests and subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

I’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Happy social distancing, one and all!
Finally, some tweaks today
• Credit gets cropped out of our charts. We’ve made that harder...
• We’re cleaning up main charts by removing some country labels. Fear not! All countries still shown in chart grids
• Iran dropped for reliability reasons
• Brand new charts tomorrow
And now, food.

Recipes, for anyone looking for some culinary inspiration while social distancing:
• Homemade pasta marcato.it/en/academy/rec…
• Sauce cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/11003-…
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More from @jburnmurdoch see all

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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Sat 4 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US about to go clear of Spain for most daily deaths of any country in the world
• UK on steeper trajectory than Italy, which was seen as hardest-hit country worldwide

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
How does that look cumulatively?
• US death toll slope shows no signs of flattening; about to shoot straight past Italy, which was slowing by this stage
• US will likely have highest total death toll globally within a week

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Now daily new cases:
• US arcing up into the tens of thousands of confirmed cases per day; still no nationwide lockdown and Americans continue to travel
• France & Germany possibly joining Italy and Spain in seeing new cases plateau if not dip
Read 16 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Fri 3 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new deaths
• US & UK both likely to pass Spain for peak daily deaths
• Daily death tolls in the thousands to become the norm in US
• UK now clearly steeper than Italy

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
How does that look cumulatively?
• US slope still far steeper than any other at this stage. Why? US is now dealing with multiple overlapping outbreaks, keeping the pace up. US will likely have highest death toll globally within a week.

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Now daily new cases:
• US still boldly going where no country has gone before, at >20k new confirmed cases per day. Destined to end up the worst-affected country in the world.
• France possibly joining Italy and Spain in seeing new cases plateau and begin to dip
Read 14 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
One more new chart thread today:

A cautionary tale for those who think lockdowns will end overnight and life will go straight back to normal.

Movie theatres were told to close when China’s outbreak began, with admissions dropping from millions to a trickle overnight.
~10 days ago, they started reopening, months after lockdowns began 😀

A week later, they were told to close again amid fears of a second outbreak 😔
This is probably how things will play out everywhere.

Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up again.

It’s not just going to be a case of "cool that’s done then, let’s make up for lost time!"
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️#COVID19 deaths in #NYC are more than DOUBLING every 2 days, faster than *anywhere* else globally.

#Michigan (#Detroit) and NJ are also #coronavirus hot zones, followed #NewOrleans (LA).

As I've warned, the next 4-6 weeks will be hell.

#CoronavirusPandemic
📸@jburnmurdoch
🚨#COVID19 cases in the US are exploding *exponentially*, now at >20,000 new cases per day and RISING.

Until at least ~2-3 weeks after we #FlattenTheCurve of new #coronavirus cases, the number of **daily deaths will continue to surge**.

PLEASE #StayHome.🙏🏼

#CoronavirusPandemic
⚠️@realDonaldTrump FAILED to #lockdown nationwide, and @GOP governors FAILED to #lockdown some states, helping this deadly #coronavirus to spread EXPONENTIALLY.

More Americans will DIE because of their INACTION.🤬

#COVID19 #CoronavirusPandemic
Read 5 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️New #coronavirus cases continue to explode in the US, as a consequence of both increased #COVID19 testing and exponential viral spread.

Cases are doubling *nearly every 2 days*.

INACTION = more people DIE.

NATIONWIDE LOCKDOWN NEEDED NOW. 1/

📸@jburnmurdoch
😱#COVID19 death toll in the US is rising at a faster rate than nearly any country, with #coronavirus deaths DOUBLING *nearly every 2 days*.

Deaths are a “lagging” indicator, as it takes time for patients to 1) become symptomatic (median=5 days) and 2) to succumb (2-3 weeks). 2/
This #coronavirus has an R0=3 (each infected person infects 3 other people on average).

After 10 rounds of this, that 1st infection leads to 59,000 new #COVID19 cases.

And the virus has been circulating UNDETECTED in our communities for MONTHS.🤬

Read 7 tweets
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CEDR Digital Corps
@CEDRdigital
#Coronavirus UPDATE & Resources
Mar 7th 9PM EST
The🌎stats:
-105,981 = 95 Countries & China
-3,586 have died🌎
-59,916 have recovered🌎
-80,695 Cases in 🇨🇳
-7,134 #SouthKorea
-5,883 #Italy
-5,823 #Iran
-949 France
#COVID19seattle #NC #WA #CA #MA #CT
1/8 #US #COVIDー19 Stats 👇🏾
2a) #US #COVID19 Update
March 6th 9PM EST
-424 #Coronavirus cases in US
-32 states have confirmed cases
-94 new cases as of 9pm
-15 have recovered
-17 have died #WA #CA
-US Citizens in Self-quarantine: 13,900+
-See Pandemic Prep Resources 👇🏾
#CoronavirusUSA #Houston #Chicago #NJ
Below you will see 3 things:
-The number of #coronavirus cases in the 32 states w/#COVID19
-The transmission origin - nearly half is community spread followed by an infected/sick person who lived in #Westchester who then infected 54 others
-chart showing the daily # of new cases
Read 12 tweets
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Memelord
@dailydigger19
New #Coronavirus thread starts now. Click this tweet and scroll up and you'll eventually get back to January 23rd. Have fun with that.
Starting soon.
#Coronavirus situation in Iran among the grimest
Read 445 tweets
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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
🦠🚨🦠 Coronavirus daily thread.
Yes I am late starting it today.

Now confirmed Coronavirus can live on surfaces 9 days.
Surfaces can be disinfected.

If not, it is transmissible from surface contact w/out immediate hand washing w/hot water & soap or effective sanitizer.
From China Daily - coronavirus

🦠🚨 Coronavirus "official" updates:

28,364 confirmed globally
566 fatalities

CHI:
3,859 serious
1,153 recovered
24,702 suspected

Read 25 tweets
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Memelord
@dailydigger19
New #Coronavirus thread. Tagging someone in this tweet makes me paranoid I ruined it.

The old thread is here though
Here's what the #Coronavirus hospital looks like, 4 days of construction later. They're working as fast as they can but is it too late, regardless?
Family members cry as their loved ones get bused off to a #Coronavirus quarantine zone in Wuhan
Read 222 tweets

Trending hashtags

#新型肺炎 #coronavirus #leftist #Brussels #Warfare #altmedicine #CoronaVirus #SARS #coronavirusupdates #CNN #Englewood #COVID2019 #Hospital #COFID19 #Houston #SWINE #NYT #Trump #Foxnews #spreadsheet #covid19 #Twitter #Detroit #korona #superspreader

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