Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.
I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.
Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?
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I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.
Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?
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My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):
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In my Apr 12 thread (toll @ 20k), I explained the fundamental systems concepts for the #coronavirus epidemic:
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I made my second prediction on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (40k). In the Apr 19 thread below, I explained my theory for the Kinematics of Epidemics:
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I made my third prediction on Apr 21 for May 1 (65k= MAX death toll REPEATEDLY predicted by Mr Trump). I discussed that in the May 1 thread below:
(@ft did not publish a cumulative deaths plot on May 1. Below is the daily new cases plot from Apr 28.)
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(@ft did not publish a cumulative deaths plot on May 1. Below is the daily new cases plot from Apr 28.)
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My fourth prediction was on May 10 for the Memorial Weekend: 100k +/– 5k deaths.
May 23 tally was 97k. May 25 tally was 99,459.
The current official tally, May 26, 5pm ET, is 100,038 (@bing).
Note that reporting of deaths are delayed on weekends.
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May 23 tally was 97k. May 25 tally was 99,459.
The current official tally, May 26, 5pm ET, is 100,038 (@bing).
Note that reporting of deaths are delayed on weekends.
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Mr. Trump's UPDATED prediction on May 1 for the MAXIMUM US death toll from #COVID was 100,000.
I made a rough projection on May 1 that we would reach ~100k deaths before the end of May:
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I made a rough projection on May 1 that we would reach ~100k deaths before the end of May:
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I did not use any complex dynamic models or advanced statistical methods such as #MachineLearning or #AI. I did not even use a calculator. All I used was just a pen and paper.
A proof that the basic dynamics of the #coronavirus spread is fairly simple & predictable.
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A proof that the basic dynamics of the #coronavirus spread is fairly simple & predictable.
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We have had about 10 weeks of lockdowns in the US. These lockdowns slowed the exponential growth of cases to a linear trend. However, the deceleration rate of daily new cases is much slower than other countries that locked down around the same time.
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Daily new cases:
#Switzerland has the steepest negative slope, i.e., very successful deceleration.
#Italy, #Spain, #France, #Germany, #Netherlands have similar deceleration rates. But NL has unfortunately plateaued.
The UK is the worst in #Europe, yet better than the #US.
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#Switzerland has the steepest negative slope, i.e., very successful deceleration.
#Italy, #Spain, #France, #Germany, #Netherlands have similar deceleration rates. But NL has unfortunately plateaued.
The UK is the worst in #Europe, yet better than the #US.
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Daily deaths:
#Austria, #Switzerland, the #Netherlands, #Belgium, #Germany, #France, #Spain are decelerating very rapidly. (FR & SP curves are right under Italy.)
#UK & #Italy are decelerating similarly.
#US: the slowest deceleration of daily deaths.
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#Austria, #Switzerland, the #Netherlands, #Belgium, #Germany, #France, #Spain are decelerating very rapidly. (FR & SP curves are right under Italy.)
#UK & #Italy are decelerating similarly.
#US: the slowest deceleration of daily deaths.
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Breakdown of the daily cases in the US States:
Except for #NewYork, we cannot see sharp deceleration in daily cases.
#NewJersey & #Massachusetts are decelerating slowly.
Other states have mostly plateaued, i.e., an almost constant number of daily new cases.
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Except for #NewYork, we cannot see sharp deceleration in daily cases.
#NewJersey & #Massachusetts are decelerating slowly.
Other states have mostly plateaued, i.e., an almost constant number of daily new cases.
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Similar observations apply for daily deaths in the US States.
#NewYork has a significant deceleration.
#NewJersey, #Massachusetts, #Michigan have had a slow deceleration.
Most states have plateaued.
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#NewYork has a significant deceleration.
#NewJersey, #Massachusetts, #Michigan have had a slow deceleration.
Most states have plateaued.
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Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?
1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).
2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.
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1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).
2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.
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Also, reopening CANNOT mean going back to "business as usual".
Crowded events, in closed or open spaces, will inevitably lead to further spread of the virus.
Example: a Memorial Weekend pool party near the Lake of the Ozarks.
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Crowded events, in closed or open spaces, will inevitably lead to further spread of the virus.
Example: a Memorial Weekend pool party near the Lake of the Ozarks.
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And indoor spaces — gyms, churches, bars, clubs, restaurants, schools — cannot reopen until we EITHER "crush the curve" OR find a vaccine.
So, I'm not sure why the people going to this gym in #NewJersey are so excited?!
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So, I'm not sure why the people going to this gym in #NewJersey are so excited?!
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Finally, we must understand a simple fact: the #coronavirus does not care about our politics or ideology.
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To put the current #COVID death toll of over 100k in context, here are the casualties for the major wars/events in the US:
US Civil War: 620k
WW II: 418k
Vietnam: 58.2k
WW I (combat): 53.4k
Korea: 33.7k
Iraq: 4.42k
9/11: 2.97k
Pearl Harbor: 2.4k
Afghanistan: 2.37k
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US Civil War: 620k
WW II: 418k
Vietnam: 58.2k
WW I (combat): 53.4k
Korea: 33.7k
Iraq: 4.42k
9/11: 2.97k
Pearl Harbor: 2.4k
Afghanistan: 2.37k
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To defeat the #coronavirus, we need clear, long-term thinking informed by SCIENCE and RELIABLE DATA.
We cannot have a healthy economy without healthy people.
We have to put the interests of the public before our self interests.
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We cannot have a healthy economy without healthy people.
We have to put the interests of the public before our self interests.
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A final note: it is well known that #COVID deaths are undercounted in many countries, including the US & UK.
@ft, @NYTimes, etc have widely reported this problem.
Special thank you to @ft @jburnmurdoch for providing the excellent plots that I have used in this thread.
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@ft, @NYTimes, etc have widely reported this problem.
Special thank you to @ft @jburnmurdoch for providing the excellent plots that I have used in this thread.
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