In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.

Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x
Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion.
2/x
The #stakeholder capitalism being built while we're confined to quarters is a world where, we're glibly assured, " you will (truly) own nothing - the #centralbank will ensure your fake asset's notional price is misleadingly high - and you'll be happy!" Really?
3/x
Why #inflation has been slow to make its presence felt and why that may be about to change. Once the gates of our prison are finally throw open, fiscal-#monetary overkill could produce a veritable conflagration.
4/x
From War Bonds to Daddy Warbucks to WHOAR!
5/x
Does the "Suits"' recent endorsement of #crypto constitute a genuine loss of faith in central bank monies or is it just a predictable bandwagon effect? Either way, it only hastens that Dies Irae when #CBDC-s are introduced. 6/x
Once these are in use, the present, dreadful trend of #sinification will be complete. Nothing will be private; our money will have variable value not just in general but in its specifics; stick and carrot will be inescapable. Brave New World! 7/x

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More from @CantillonCH

3 Sep 20
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities
You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Yes, there's a "V" - or at least a flipped square root sign - underway, but will it extend far enough & fast enough?
Read 11 tweets
21 Aug 20
...though basically unchanged in 3 1/2 years

#Housing
And, those good ole #FederalReserve policies again mean the monthly cost of an average #NewHome (approximated here) is back where it was 15 years ago...

#housing #QE
...while, as a proportion of the average weekly wage )as per #NFP), well - you can see for yourself:-

As we always say, there'll always be a scarcity of something real as long as there are few such constraints on #money & #credit creation.

#mortgage #RE
Read 5 tweets
9 Jul 20
#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete.
#SHFE #SHSZ
As the money floods into #China #equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.

#SHFE #SHSZ
This latest burst has also spared #CNY the ignominy of setting a new 12-year high above 7.18, instead pushing it briefly back through the talismanic 7.00 parity. Ergo, either locals are repatriating to get in on the action or Johnny Foreigner is being sucked into the move.
#FX
Read 14 tweets
7 Jul 20
1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning
2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets
Read 12 tweets
28 Jun 20
The pernicious facet of this is that a small coterie of CEOs are not punishing the Tech oligolpoly (which many cheer, if only from Schadenfreude) for being too #Left-biased but for not being censorious enough.
Did the C-Suite Sanhedrin ever consult shareholders or ask customers?
This is is the curse of virtue-signalling ‘on office time’, using Other People’s Money (property) & generally acting ultra vires to gain plaudits from the narrow circle of one’s peers by pandering to extremists & activists.
$FB $GOOG $TWTR
#KlausSchwab’s 4th International may be telling you we have ‘moved beyond #capitalism’, but until you put it to a vote of your ultimate owners, it is not something to which you have ANY business paying attention. It is not YOUR company, nor the role for which you were hired.
Read 5 tweets
23 Jun 20
In a world where people still starve (though thankfully proportionately fewer over time) and material needs in general are unsated, there can be no #savingsglut. There CAN be misallocations of saving -due to corrupted price signals or corrupted polities, or both- but that’s...
...a very different matter.
Secondly, ‘saving’ is supposed to represent an available resource -whether for consumption or production, whether material or human. It is NOT something which magically appears when the #centralbank & its minions sit behind a keyboard...
If #JeromePowell or M #Lagarde cause a million smackers to appear in everyone’s account overnight, bank balances will have risen; #savings, will NOT. Even a man as unnuanced as Mussolini got this, sneering that Italians’ wealth would not rise if they all had more printed...
Read 13 tweets

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