Thread by @CantillonCH

#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete.
#SHFE #SHSZ

As the money floods into #China #equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.

#SHFE #SHSZ

This latest burst has also spared #CNY the ignominy of setting a new 12-year high above 7.18, instead pushing it briefly back through the talismanic 7.00 parity. Ergo, either locals are repatriating to get in on the action or Johnny Foreigner is being sucked into the move.
#FX

And while you were all chasing the #Nasdaq, cursing the #Robinhood MOMO neophytes, and casting longing eyes at the #ChiNext (up 46% YTD), you might note that the AVERAGE US #stock is still trading where it was over 2 1/2 years ago:-
$VALUA

And, elsewhere on Easy-Money Bubble Watch, #Shenzhen #realestate is again cooking with gas:-

Bulls? Stags? Or Schroedinger's Cat?

National Quantum #IPO briefy jumps to a 10-fold gain on first day of listing beating last week's record-breaker Tinavi Med-Tech - a poor relation on Tuesday with just 614% and leaving Geovis Technology Co's 438% Wed debut eating dust

Meanwhile, it's not just #gold & #silver: industrial #commodities are also garnering their share of #China's hot money. #copper trading at 19 month highs; #ironore at 11; #coke at 14; #glass & #ally 10; #lead at 6 & #zinc at 5

Remind me: there's a word for all this, isn't there?

Meanwhile, #LiKeqiang wants to allow people to set up market stalls to make a living & pleaded for new rural factories to help the 70-odd mln ex-migrants jobless there ; the #CCP is telling graduates to 'go back to the country', 1/3 of #SMEs in a recent survey are in 'distress!

Larger banks were told to surrender Y1.5tln by subsidising loans to SMEs (~75% of profit, 25% of revenue) while the smaller are having to rely on chronically overindebted local governments pumping 'capital' into them so they can try to prop up those same minnows.

Elsewhere, the #export sector is in such dire straits that Beijing has urged a shift to domestic markets, yet controversy still rages over Li's admission that 600mln people live on less than Y1000 pcm.
Zhang Kuo, GM of #Alibaba Intl warned 90% of traditional exporters could fold

As for domestic sales, try this rather gloomy survey of #consumer intentions:-
Additionally, local cynics say even foreign trade is largely viable because of the associated tax rebates (often heavily gamed, of course). No such scope exists in the home market

#China #stockbubble

All that's before we get to US sanctions, loss of #HK's special status (crucial for re-exports), the imbroglio with #India, flooding, pests & disease already pushing up food prices, troubled #CRE markets - not exactly prime conditions for a genuine bull market, one might feel.

But, hey! If money is easy: if Zhongnanhai yet again wants to launch a bubble to distract attention from its woes and give its favoured clients a bit of breathing space at the expense of Auntie's retirement fund; if dumb gweilos will be benchmarked in - who's to say it won't run?

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