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9 Dec, 4 tweets, 5 min read
Russian #SWIFT: how Russia prepared for the threat of disconnection from the global financial system. #sanction

The ideas of import substitution in #Russia began to sound back in 2014. And they also touched upon the financial system.

Thread 🧵👇
Due to threat of financial #isolation of #Russia in 2014, the Bank of Russia Financial Messaging System (SPFS) was created.

SPFS is an alternative channel for transmitting electronic messages about financial transactions both domestically and abroad.
Clients of #Belarus, #Armenia, #Kyrgyzstan, #Cuba, #Abkhazia, South Ossetia are connected to SPFS. Also, the list of SPFS users includes subsidiaries of #VTB and #Gazprombank (owned by #Gazprom), registered in #Germany and #Switzerland, respectively.
$VTBR $GAZP
At end of 2020, number of messages transmitted via SPFS doubled, reaching about 21% of domestic Russian traffic in #Swift.
By 2023, Central Bank intends to increase the share of messages through SPFS to 30% of domestic Russian traffic in SWIFT.
finance.rambler.ru/economics/4622…

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More from @rdv_analytics

RDV Analytics Profile picture
8 Dec
Olaf Scholz is elected new chancellor of #Germany. How can quality of relations between Germany and #Russia change?

Roads lead to... St. Petersburg!
#Scholz: "#Hamburg and #StPetersburg are twin cities and twin ports".

Scholz's "Petersburg connections" and the SPD.
Thread 🧵👇 Image
#SPD in #Hamburg has strong ties with #Russia and, in particular, with #StPetersburg. In 2012, Henning Voscherau became chairman of BoD of South Stream Transport AG, #Gazprom's project to build the South Stream gas pipeline bypassing #Ukraine, which was never implemented. #ONGT Image
Scholz was in contact with politicians and businessmen from Petersburg. He visited city more than once, including in 2016 to participate in German-Russian forum "Petersburg Dialogue". In summer of 2017, when Hamburg hosted #G20 summit, Scholz met with Russian President #Putin. Image
Read 7 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
26 Nov
🏗 Real estate boom will continue, capitalization of developers will grow, according to RDV sources.

Need for families in #Russia for real estate is so much higher than supply of #developers that prices for square meters will inexorably rise.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG $ETLN

Thread 🧵👇
The volume of the #RealEstate market in 2020 amounted to more than 17 trillion rubles - this is the second consumer market in #Russia.
Growth potential of share of top 5 #developers is 250% - up to level of consolidation of #grocery retail market comparable in size. Along with growth of share of large players, their revenue is growing. Top 5 public developers include #Samolet, #PIK and #LSR.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG
Read 6 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
25 Nov
#Gazprom, the Russian #gas giant, could make record profits and generate 15% dividend yield over current price. #ONGT $GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY

Thread 🧵👇
On Monday, $GAZP will publish 3Q financials, which will be highest in company's history.
Record profit = record dividend:
RUB 50 - dividend per share at the end of 2021, 15% per annum (RDV calculations).
RUB 110 - amount of #dividends for 2 years - 33% of current value of shares.
Record reporting by #Gazprom may trigger a rise in shares above historic highs.

According to the calculations of the RDV source, the fair price of Gazprom shares is 455 rubles, the growth potential is +44%.

$GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY
Read 6 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
24 Nov
#Segezha is largest Russian representative of #timber industry. Company benefits from world's drive to move away from deforestation. Foreign politicians have pledged to end deforestation by 2030.
$SGZH
bbc.com/news/science-e…
All over the world, area of ​​forests is decreasing, while in #Russia it is growing.
#Brazil, as one of largest timber producer, has pledged to end illegal logging, which will require aggressive reductions in forest harvesting.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.L…
Area of ​​forests in #Russia is growing and deforestation sometimes is necessary to grow systematically (to solve problem of fires, sufficient supply of light, etc.). In addition, 80% of #forests of Russia soft #woods, more suitable for production of packaging due to its density. Image
Read 8 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
10 Nov
💸 Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism. Image
• In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
• In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming. Image
Populist views are capturing the minds of monetary authorities, which only fuels #inflation. This was the case in the #USA in the 1970s: prices almost tripled.
And sometimes it was much worse: in Israel in the 1980s, prices for goods jumped ~10,000 times. Image
Read 10 tweets

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