UK politics feels very unsettled now. But IMO this is going to escalate seriously in run up to Brexit - & more so after >
Brexiters are right: EU mem’ship has huge effect on UK. 2.
EU constrains UK ... & underpins it’s economy & international relations. 3.
UK Gov has no coherent plan to replace the underpinning - nor to deal with losing it. 4.
Leave narrative is that Brexit means freedom from constraint - signfocance of losing underpinning massively downplayed. 5
Scale of EU economic & institutional underpinning will get clearer, in fits & starts, as Brexit approaches 6
Decisions depending on future EU approval / membership will start to be taken differently 7
Euro Capital of Culture now. Soon “Open Skies”: airlines may refuse bookings for flights to/from EU/UK 8
Will UK conference organisers, hotel bookers start to see slow take up for 2019 - incl “all Europe” tours? 9
Anyone planning to do X-border business with UK after March ‘19 will start factoring in Brexit. 10
Last few months have surely cut % of business planners who trust that it’ll all be sorted in time 11
“Brexit avoidance” will build to a head by March ‘17: cross-border trade will be systematically reduced 12
Still, there’s a high chance Brexit day will quickly be followed by big shocks: no smooth transition. 13
Queues at borders (both ways) & shortages across UK for people and goods. 14
By now, a very divided country. Brexiters with high, pent-up expectations. Remainers angry & demoralised. 15
Gov will struggle to meet expectations with falling tax base & Brexit-induced crises 16
Scenario is great opportunity for populism - of left and right. Offering drastic, evidence-free solutions. 17/
Im concerned that by 2020 UK will look back at 2017 with envy. 18/18
