1. This is worrisome.
2. This is worrisome.
3. There is a real, non-zero chance that Trump could blunder into an apocalyptic war in Asia. We shouldn't panic -- it's still unlikely -- but we have to take it seriously & think about stopping it.
4. Best case scenario is Trump's bluster is just bluster & North Koreans know it. They dismiss him as a bullshit artist & status quo remains.
5. The danger is that the bluster gets misinterpreted as a imminent threat. Making that more likely is USA under Trump has very weak diplomatic capabilities.
6. Tillerson is a toadstool & State Dept is in disarray. USA has no ambassador in South Korea. Trump leans heavily on military men who, whatever other qualities they have, are not diplomats. In a stand off, things could get hairy.
7. My guess is South Korean gov'ts rift with USA & openness to talks with North Korea is fuelled in part by wanting to stave off worst case scenario & to compensate for weakness of USA diplomacy.
8. But aside from South Korean gov't, one other body can act as a check on Trump's blundering: congress.
9. Obviously GOP congress hasn't been doing a great job of checking Trump (although Corker's WWIII warnings a sign that even some of them are concerned).
10. If Dems win in fall, especially if (unlikely but possible) they win Senate, they can offer a real check to Trump's foreign policy.
11. Congress actually has a lot of potential power to hamstring a president. Since Pearl Harbor it has been reluctant to use that. This might be the moment to challenge the imperial presidency.
