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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
, 8 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Breaking: @CookPolitical PVI values for the new PA map (h/t @bycoffe). Note: districts were totally renumbered, so careful on before/after. Will walk thru the biggest changes below. 1/
New #PA01 (old #PA08): Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - takes in a less GOP-friendly portion of Montco, PVI ticks down from R+2 to R+1
New #PA02 (old #PA01): this should be a safe NE Philly district for Rep. Brendan Boyle (D). PVI D+25
New #PA03 (old #PA02): safe African-American majority seat for Rep. Dwight Evans (D). PVI D+41
New #PA04 (old #PA13): safe Dem seat for a Montco Dem. Boyle (D) could choose to run here but lives in new #PA02.
New #PA05 (old #PA07): safe Dem seat for a Delco Dem. Meehan (R) is the retiring incumbent here & now GOP doesn't have a prayer of keeping it. PVI D+13.
New #PA06 (keeps same #): unites all of Chester County plus city of Reading. Rep. Ryan Costello (R) now in big trouble. PVI moves from R+2 to D+2.
New #PA07 (old #PA15): reunites the Lehigh Valley, making Dent (R) open seat much more winnable for Dems. PVI moves from R+4 to D+1.
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Why the slight shift? Let me try to explain what we've observed move post-Labor Day. There are basically 3 large buckets of House races we're watching...
1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.
2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.
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McGrath (D)’s problem is that she’s well past the point of diminishing returns in a market as cheap as Lexington & even risks fatiguing #KY06 voters (see Ossoff, Jon).
By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.
This is precisely what happened to ‘17 VA Dems, who *underestimated* the wave and failed to adequately fund a bunch of 2nd-tier Dems who fell just short while many of the best-funded won by a mile.
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A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population.
And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full display in 2018: nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opi…
For all the gerrymandering in the House, it's actually the Senate that's vastly more unrepresentative. The fact it's remotely close owes to 11 red-state Dem senators - almost entirely up in 2018 - who have hung on thanks to an extraordinary combination of skill & luck.
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
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New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
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