Unrolled thread from @SethAbramson
14 tweets
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BREAKING NEWS: Among many other things, this "man of mystery" news means that Erik Prince lied repeatedly to Congress and can likely be charged with a felony. He said his trip had nothing to do with Trump and left George Nader entirely out of his testimony, clearly deliberately.
2/ Three months ago, I did a lengthy thread on Erik Prince's testimony in which I said that it was clear from both the testimony and the background we already had on the events Prince was testifying about that Prince was lying.
Now that's been confirmed.
Now that's been confirmed.
3/ Also three months ago, I did *this* thread in which I said Prince's UAE ties—beyond meeting with them about bauxite, he also lives there—suggested there was more funny business between the Trumps and the UAE than we know. That's also now proven correct.
4/ Days ago I did *this* thread on how U.S. media must investigate whether there are ties between Trump's sudden aluminum tariff announcement and Prince, Deripaska, and the UAE. And considering the UAE was one of four nations plotting to exploit Kushner...
5/ We're getting very close to having to say—on social media, CNN, everywhere—that there's a *Trump-UAE scandal* as well as a Trump-Russia scandal. The former may not have anything to do with the election, but we can't know yet—given UAE was brokering secret Trump-Russia meetups.
6/ What *does* seem clear is that there's a Trump-UAE scandal involving public corruption and whether Trump was selling U.S. policy for money—which is *exactly* what's at issue in the Trump-Russia scandal.
So the two are connected thematically, whether or not they are topically.
So the two are connected thematically, whether or not they are topically.
7/ Mueller's likely target/witness map (higher level = higher value target; lower level = flip):
4: Trump, Kushner, Prince, Manafort
3: Gates, Don, Ivanka, Flynn, Sessions
2: Clovis, Page, Papadopoulos, Cohen, Sater, Hicks, Bannon
1: Nunberg, Gordon, Spicer, Priebus, Lewandowski
4: Trump, Kushner, Prince, Manafort
3: Gates, Don, Ivanka, Flynn, Sessions
2: Clovis, Page, Papadopoulos, Cohen, Sater, Hicks, Bannon
1: Nunberg, Gordon, Spicer, Priebus, Lewandowski
8/ At the lowest level listed in Tweet #7—LVL1—it's possible there was no criminal wrongdoing, or weak evidence of wrongdoing, or strong evidence of a lesser crime (a single false statement and nothing else, for instance). But as with Nunberg, "immunity" offers may still be made.
9/ If I were hedging my bets on the map* I offered in Tweet #7 (which is based on present public reporting):
Prince: LVL4 --> LVL3
Gates: LVL3 --> LVL2
Sessions: LVL3 --> LVL2
Cohen: LVL2 --> LVL3
Bannon: LVL2 --> LVL3
Lewandowski: LVL1 --> LVL2
* Oh, and Stone is LVL2 or LVL3.
Prince: LVL4 --> LVL3
Gates: LVL3 --> LVL2
Sessions: LVL3 --> LVL2
Cohen: LVL2 --> LVL3
Bannon: LVL2 --> LVL3
Lewandowski: LVL1 --> LVL2
* Oh, and Stone is LVL2 or LVL3.
10/ Don't be surprised if we discover the UAE sought the same nuclear tech from Trump's administration Saudi Arabia did—which would add a host of Trump-Russia figures like Flynn and McFarlane into the Trump-UAE scandal. See my thread from three months ago:
11/ The simple version: Russia wanted Trump to drop sanctions so it could build nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia (and maybe UAE). A gaggle of Trump aides/allies seem to have been working *both* ends of that equation: Russian sanctions and cutting energy deals in the Middle East.
12/ My point: be *very* careful about media reports saying that Mueller looking at Trump-UAE ties means he's "moving beyond" Trump-Russia ties—that may be false.
In other words, it's equally likely that Trump-UAE dealings were *part of* of the Trump-Russia scandal. Fair warning.
In other words, it's equally likely that Trump-UAE dealings were *part of* of the Trump-Russia scandal. Fair warning.
13/ Two *stunning* facts:
1. The Trump aide now cooperating with Mueller was close enough to Trump that he was *on his way to Mar-a-Lago* when the FBI picked him up.
2. *Jared and Ivanka* have been seen hanging around with RDIF people, so Mueller will look beyond Dmitriev here.
1. The Trump aide now cooperating with Mueller was close enough to Trump that he was *on his way to Mar-a-Lago* when the FBI picked him up.
2. *Jared and Ivanka* have been seen hanging around with RDIF people, so Mueller will look beyond Dmitriev here.
14/ What else connects Trump, Prince, Deripaska, Russia, and the UAE? Aluminum. Prince's business is aluminum, as was Deripaska's (through 2017). The UAE/Russia are 2 of America's 3 biggest aluminum importers. Trump suddenly announced aluminum tariffs (much lower than for steel).
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