Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #chairpowell
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As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
In testimony before #Congress yesterday, @federalreserve #ChairPowell unsurprisingly displayed resolve that the central bank’s fight to return inflation closer to its 2% target is unfinished and that the historical record suggests that relenting too soon would be a mistake.
Chair #Powell signaled more rate hikes and a higher terminal rate than previous #Fed projections, and an openness to adjust the pace of rate hikes depending on the totality of the data.
With the strength recently witnessed in the #LaborMarket data, in various #inflation measures and in #economic growth readings more generally, this resolve by policymakers would seem to be not only required, but critical to returning inflation to more normal levels.
In his @federalreserve #JacksonHole speech #ChairPowell stated emphatically that the #FOMC’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
In other words, we take his statement today to mean that the #Fed won’t be easily swayed into reversing rate #hikes next year, and will stay with the elevated Funds rate for a long time.
The #Fed has clearly been (appropriately) rushing to get to a destination of #inflation-denting restrictive rate (and #liquidity) policy in order to break extremely high levels of inflation, while hopefully not thrusting the economy into a deep #recession.
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. 
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector.
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
As expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee continued to discuss its plans to reduce, or #taper, the pace of its #AssetPurchase program at yesterday’s meeting.
While the details of this discussion were fairly sparse, the Committee statement did state that: “If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Further, at the recent #Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and at the press conference, Fed #ChairPowell emphasized that both he and most Committee participants now consider the test of “substantial further progress” toward the #inflation mandate to be largely satisfied.
It was 73 degrees and sunny in #JacksonHole, Wyoming, today; a perfect day for all those who were there….
Yet, there were no #monetary policy officials present at the traditional location of the @KansasCityFed’s late-summer #economic policy symposium, since they were conducting a “virtual symposium.”
That symposium provided #ChairPowell the opportunity to lay out a reasonably sunny perspective on the U.S. #economy, but also one that was not out of the woods yet, in terms of Covid variant risk and a maximum #employment target still to be achieved.
The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
For us, while #ChairPowell’s testimony before #Congress yesterday and the day prior didn’t reveal any new policy news, it did highlight the longer-term #economic challenges the country faces.
Specifically, the # Fed Chair emphasized that not only is the loss to #growth the most severe on record, but the “burden of the downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans. Instead, those least able to withstand the downturn have been affected most.”
Recent actions by the @federalreserve have been awe-inspiring; I’m not sure what words would be stronger than that- but they’re required.
