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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
A contrast:
Adam Frisch and Adam Gray lost #CO03 and #CA13, respectively, by less than 600 votes each. And they conceded. Didn’t cry fraud. Didn’t insult the integrity of elections workers. Didn’t claim that the elections were rigged.
Compare that to Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.
Adam Frisch and Adam Gray lost #CO03 and #CA13, respectively, by less than 600 votes each. And they conceded. Didn’t cry fraud. Didn’t insult the integrity of elections workers. Didn’t claim that the elections were rigged.
Compare that to Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.
Lake and Finchem lost their races by a larger point margin than Frisch and Gray. And they continue, to this day, to insist that they won the race and that the contest was “stolen” from them. Even though they didn’t even do as well as Trump in 2022 - and HE lost.
Losing an election doesn’t make somebody a loser.
Lying to people’s faces, manipulating people, not having an ounce of dignity and being willing to burn democracy to the ground for the sake of your bruised ego - THAT makes you a loser.
Lying to people’s faces, manipulating people, not having an ounce of dignity and being willing to burn democracy to the ground for the sake of your bruised ego - THAT makes you a loser.
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
It definitely is a leadership fail. But Rs underperformance is not explained only by MSG failures.
D vote was much more efficient, a reversal of history. They have a big tech cabal micro-targeting, MSGing, and a multi-union VBM machine.
Rs lost a game they didn't know existed.
D vote was much more efficient, a reversal of history. They have a big tech cabal micro-targeting, MSGing, and a multi-union VBM machine.
Rs lost a game they didn't know existed.
Everything I packed in there doesn’t even begin to scratch the surface of the leadership fail.
That all being said, there really was true sabotage by an overconfident leadership trying to minimize MAGA in their conferences, and it cost them.
Here’s one must-read example.
That all being said, there really was true sabotage by an overconfident leadership trying to minimize MAGA in their conferences, and it cost them.
Here’s one must-read example.
I suspected there would be a deluge of them speaking out now that they really have nothing left to lose.
Here’s another.
The cold hard truth is that @GOPLeader McCarthy and @LeaderMcConnell thought they had seats to spare.
Arrogance and overconfidence.
thenationalpulse.com/2022/11/11/maj…
Here’s another.
The cold hard truth is that @GOPLeader McCarthy and @LeaderMcConnell thought they had seats to spare.
Arrogance and overconfidence.
thenationalpulse.com/2022/11/11/maj…
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Per @Taniel's spreadsheet, Republicans have either won or are leading in 220 House districts, with Democrats winning or leading in 215 districts.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
You may recall that in 2018, Democrats gained considerably in competitive House districts once late mail ballots were counted.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
One clue that this California "blue shift" could happen is that Democrats are currently underperforming polls in the Governor/Senate margins statewide.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
FYI @Duarte4Congress is going to lose #CA13. He served his purpose for @GOPLeader to stop America First @DavidGiglioCA and, after futile begging, DG's Hispanic support has now gone to @AdamGrayCA, to include his GOP support.
Duarte got played. "Plantation Owner" isn't endearing.
Duarte got played. "Plantation Owner" isn't endearing.
I would be remiss if I didn't say publicly that @DavidGiglioCA is a man of integrity and cannot be bought, and believe it, they tried to buy him.
He owes nothing to @Duarte4Congress (no traction), who played a patsy for @GOPLeader.
David is the real deal.
He owes nothing to @Duarte4Congress (no traction), who played a patsy for @GOPLeader.
David is the real deal.
I'd absolutely vote for @AdamGrayCA and have no qualms about being honest or public about it.
I just disagree with him on certain things. But I'd rather him than someone running to kill entire populations of shrimp and erasing $ MILLIONS of Clean Water Act violations.
I just disagree with him on certain things. But I'd rather him than someone running to kill entire populations of shrimp and erasing $ MILLIONS of Clean Water Act violations.
Look at the replies to @EliseStefanik endorsing the donor candidate. It's pathetic, including the one who raises up the CWA violation that will end him.
Good for #CA13 GOP voters that he is WAY down and the independent expenditures have zero chance of making up a 3 to 1 deficit.
Good for #CA13 GOP voters that he is WAY down and the independent expenditures have zero chance of making up a 3 to 1 deficit.
But this tells me everything I need to know for now and forever about @EliseStefanik.
Elise is a total fraud and a crook.
She was told to do by CROOKED KEVIN MCCARTHY \ against the America First candidate who has the lead and an incredible bond with the Hispanic community.
Elise is a total fraud and a crook.
She was told to do by CROOKED KEVIN MCCARTHY \ against the America First candidate who has the lead and an incredible bond with the Hispanic community.
I really hope I get the green light to show the latest polling so that I can show you all just how unpopular McCarthy and his donor candidates are in his own backyard.
Embarrassment is coming in a few days and mailers with your boy playing pocket pool with himself won't help.
Embarrassment is coming in a few days and mailers with your boy playing pocket pool with himself won't help.
NEW: @CLFSuperPAC, the House GOP’s top outside group, is booking $125M in fall TV/digital ad buys across 48 media markets
This is just the initial round but it’s already more than they spent on ads in the entire 2020 cycle. And $111M of it is for offense
politico.com/news/2022/04/2…
This is just the initial round but it’s already more than they spent on ads in the entire 2020 cycle. And $111M of it is for offense
politico.com/news/2022/04/2…
A sign of how good House Rs think the environment is for them >> CLF is booking air time in seats Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020
Examples:
Jahana Hayes in #CT05
Katie Porter in #CA47
Mike Levin in #CA49
the open #CA13
Examples:
Jahana Hayes in #CT05
Katie Porter in #CA47
Mike Levin in #CA49
the open #CA13
And here's a full market breakdown of where CLF is spending
Biggest buys:
$15M in Las Vegas for Titus + Lee or Horsford
$8.1M in Phoenix for O'Halleran + Stanton or Schweikert
$7.3M in Philly for Wild + Fitzpatrick
Biggest buys:
$15M in Las Vegas for Titus + Lee or Horsford
$8.1M in Phoenix for O'Halleran + Stanton or Schweikert
$7.3M in Philly for Wild + Fitzpatrick
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
