By far the best explanation of whatever it is Trump sort-of negotiated with Mexico. Read @ChadBown for the real analysis; I just have a few further thoughts 1/
The deal appears to impose fairly onerous requirements on new Mexican auto plants if they want to qualify for tariff-free access to the US market. Bown suggests that Mexican producers would find it cheaper to ignore the reqs and pay the 2.5% tariff on non-NAFTA autos 2/
Trump could block this by imposing a 232 -- that is, national security -- tariff on nonconforming Mexican auto exports. But this would be a travesty -- a clear violation of the spirit of international trade rules 3/
Trump presumably doesn't care. But then the question: is the tariff (a) only on Mexico, or (b) global? If (a), this hurts Mexican production vis-a-vis European and Asian. Since Mexican cars contain a lot of US parts, this probably destroys US auto jobs 4/
If (b), it's a big step toward all-out global trade war. Is this the plan? Probably not: they're backing themselves into it with a shoddily constructed agreement and lack of clear thinking 5/
The only way this doesn't get ugly fast is if Bown is wrong, and the requirements on Mexico aren't really binding. But in that case this is a Potemkin agreement, pure theater w/out substance. And u know what? Trump et al surely have no idea which it is 6/
