Economists for free trade say that China, India, the US and Japan have experienced greater growth in exports to the EU than the UK. Well that’s their economy. Shall we examine some UK export trade differentials over the last 20 years?
If we look at the difference between the seasonally adjusted value of exports between 1998 and 2018 we can see that the difference in those export values is greater for our exports to the European Union than any other market. 
The fall in difference is quite marked after the first 17 countries. Starting with Mexico, there doesn't appear to be much evidence of growth in around 190 of our export markets.
We have had a few economic issues, in the world and in Europe. For this reason we should look at the difference in that context and, if we look at the export values for 2010-2018, the picture is slightly different.
The differential has clearly increased in a number of selected countries. The European Union isn't such a clear leader, but go past the 17 countries and the results are pretty much the same.
A question remains: Has the Euro-crisis resulted in sluggish performance and are we to see a return to the numbers seen over 20 year, or is this representative of the future to come?"
Well if the Eurozone is going to recover and drive greater growth, then leaving is a bad thing to do, and if it isn’t, let’s look at the fact quite a few of those with high differentials are already covered by trade deals.
Of the remaining markets, three are either in the very early stages of negotiation, or have been negotiated, by the European Union.
One has some of the lowest tariffs in the world, and the benefit of a trade deal on goods is nominal.
Four are in a trade bloc which has suspended trade talks with the EU. The European Union is trying to kick start this, and until they do, there could be a short term benefit for the UK to do a deal with the bloc. If, of course, they can get past the political problems.
The United States is definitely a high prize, but the negotiation legislation the President must follow, and the red lines the UK have set on animal welfare, are not compatible. Furthermore, a customs deal for the Irish border would reinforce the UK's incompatible red lines.
Finally there is China, and this is where I undermine everything I’ve said, because we don’t just do trade deals by numbers, and industries are actually quite important too., Like the fact the majority of UK exports to China are road vehicles,
If we don’t have suitable arrangement with the European Union to maintain the industries that are currently relying on the Single Market, then the exports we’re looking at might not exist in the future.
Which means even at the simplest level we can’t determine the best trade policy, and countries who may want to consider doing a trade deal with the UK aren’t going to be in a good position to evaluate the UK economy either.
There is also the fear of the economic effect of no deal in terms of market confidence. Notably when Iceland found itself in economic problems their trade deal with China evaporated. A country with an unstable economy isn't necessarily the most attractive deal.
If we end up taking no deal, and the market responds accordingly, there is no guarantee that those trade deals will come, and if they do, they might be at a price.
At the same time, any trade policy we develop will be based on export industries in transition, with no real understanding of what the future is. Unless, of course, we prioritise continuation above anything else.
We don't appear to be doing that, and instead we're talking about walking away from a market that is pretty much holding its own against the rest of the world in terms of goods export growth in cash terms.
It's true there are nominal gains in Hong Kong in terms of tariff reduction and ensuring they can't raise their tariffs. There are possibly short term gains in negotiating a deal with the GCC, but the EU trade deal is still the most important deal we can do bar none.
Any analysis will conclude that fact. From this over-simplified day analysis, to the detailed analysis of a governmental department.
(It’s not close)
(It’s not close)
It's important to remember, therefore, that economies are different, and suggesting one trade policy fits all is simply nonsense. The UK needs to be pursuing a trade policy suitable for its own economy and the industries within it.
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