Thread by @PlugInFUD

A THREAD on using TMC data to try to figure out $tsla's remaining backlog...

To those who don't know, one of the best sources of Tesla Model 3 data has been the @TeslaMotorsClub tracker. (it's an enthusiast forum where buyers self-report ordering, taking delivery, etc.)

$tslaq

here's the source for that tracker. you've likely seen myself and others post graphs of waiting on VIN/waiting on car, etc. good source of information on trim blend as well.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/mo…

Back to the topic at hand: BACKLOG

our pal @elonmusk certainly pulled out all the stops and made and delivered a lot of cars in Q3. some people are still waiting on their car making its way from Lathrop to Louisiana, etc.

But are there any more ORDERS in the pipeline?

IMO, the data screams ORDER BOOK IS GONE.

Pasted below is a pivot of the data (FYI: a spreadsheet entry is made [by an individual who feels inclined to do so] when he configures a car)

As you will see: configurations have dropped OFF A CLIFF.

$tsla $tslaq

Configs related to an existing reservation spiked in April (as it was opened up for many) and June (when the idea of "reservations" was killed... unless Tesla already had your $1k deposit). Thus you see no-reservation configs begin in June.

89.5% of total configs tied to reservations happened BY END OF JUNE. July and August had some tapering activity (perhaps people got to drive their buddy's M3 and liked it) but Sep and Oct had virtually NO orders related to reservation-holders. $tsla $tslaq

thus mr @elonmusk and Tesla were smart to open ordering to all, as from July onward, non-reservation holders totaled 50% of the orders tracked here. HOWEVER, even for that group, most activity was in July and Aug with a major dropoff in Sep and awful extrap. Oct. $tsla $tslaq

Now this is only indicative and there is certainly a lag, but the "extrapolated cars configured" line should strike fear into the heart of Tesla bulls. Right now there is little to no wait to get most Model 3 configs, so lets assume total configs roughly = total prod. (~100k)

... if that assumption is true, or even close to being true, ever since Tesla opened configuration to all in June, Model3s have not been ORDERED at anywhere CLOSE to a 4k-5k/week rate.

$tsla $tslaq

which further supports...

...the factory slowdowns reported by @skabooshka and others, and more importantly, @elonmusk increasingly erratic behavior (remember, the fake buyout offer was Aug 7th) over the past two months. He knows that the Potemkin Village will soon be revealed.

$tsla $tslaq

BIG OL CAVEAT: this data is self-reported, and as more normies buy Model 3s, they are less likely to log it here than the True Believers who live on Tesla forums. so I WOULD THINK that recent data is less representative than earlier data of total % of real-life cars.

...that being said, given @elonmusk & Tesla went SILENT on affirming the supposedly 420k-strong reservation book or Q4 results, awful delivery & quality reports, and Elon's descent into madness.. i think i'm pretty comfortable believing this data is not too far off. $tsla $tslaq

...and if Tesla had done a better job of planning ahead, such as securing European approval, figuring out what engineering could be done to be able to sell something close to the $35k car, they'd have another source of orders..

...because the US and Canada look tapped out. (end)

(and as always... let me know if you spot a big error in math or logic... happy to revise or revoke if i'm factually off base here).

$tsla $tslaq