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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 6 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1) 3 options, that's all on #Brexit
MPs are behind on this but the commentators are realising, its:
- May's deal
- No deal
- Remain
That's it, no other options for #Brexit. This gets us to a couple of points that would be a big help in moving us along
2) for programs like #politicslive, #Peston, #newsnight it would be really very helpful for the UK if you cut across any "we'd get a better deal" bullshit and simply asked "there's 3 options, no time or inclination for more negotiations, please pick one your party would support"
3) for those same programs, if you really must get Mogg, Patterson, IDS on then you could save a lot of time by saying "no deal may be as you say, but you blew your chance so if you can't get it through parliament what's the point in talking about it endlessly?"
4) and this is especially for @Keir_Starmer, @BarryGardiner, @AngelaRayner & others in Labour
Time's up
You can't support May, you can't support No Deal, your unicorns have melted
You have to support a #PeoplesVote, you don't have a choice
@Keir_Starmer @BarryGardiner @AngelaRayner 5) because if @UKLabour does not support a #PeoplesVote it will end this Brexit process having never taken any position whatsoever, and will have shown itself to be just a bystander in these great events

And voters will say "where were you when all this was going on?"
@Keir_Starmer @BarryGardiner @AngelaRayner @UKLabour 6) given that the Labour Leadership lead the greatest set of pro remain activists in the country this "Brexit observer" status would be farcical

There's only 3 Brexit options, there's no get out of jail free card
Labour can *only* support a #PeoplesVote
Best get on with it
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#Brexit #politicslive #Peston #newsnight #PeoplesVote

More from @tony_nog see all

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1) You have a mortgage, several credit cards & a pay day loan so you go to the bank to restructure your finances

You can't get to an agreement & you can't afford the payments so you stop paying

But you still have the debt & now a busted credit score

This is no deal & the £39b
2) there's this idea that we save £39b if we #Brexit with no deal.
The obligation still exists, we've already agreed this. We're not "buying a deal" we're meeting commitments.
If we crash out & don't pay we're just sending a message, the UK is untrustworthy as well as incompetent
3) if you're the kind of person who thinks it's OK for the UK to walk away from a debt its already agreed to then you're probably the kind of person who doesn't pay his fair share of a meal, or gets his round in, or returns that borrowed drill

A bit of a shit basically
Read 3 tweets
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1) There is one reason why remainers have "bashed Corbyn" and its this

Because its always been obvious that Labour represented a large & growing Remain group, and that Corbyn was pro #Brexit, working against that Remain attitude

It's not rocket science
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
2) Corbyn "Remainers" have continously reinterpreted Corbyn's words, projected their beliefs onto him, pressed on "the long game", stated "he's just following policy", said "he hasn't the numbers" and generally gone through hoops to avoid the obvious truth - Corbyn is a brexiter
3) instead of making statements like "#FBPE is a Corbyn bashing cult" it would be more honest to recognise that Corbyn is against his party & membership on #Brexit, the biggest issue of the age, and always has been. And this is a disgrace

Defending him on this is also a disgrace
Read 5 tweets
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1) the Main democratic outrage of #Brexit was the question

There's lots of talk about how a #PeoplesVote would be a democractic outrage but the reality is the major democratic disaster was the Leave/Remain referendum question

And sooner or later we're going to have to face it
2) the problem is "Leave" as an option is a blank canvas, but when examined it always, in any analysis, breaks out into at least 2 very different versions
a) a deal which prioritises the economy over sovereignty
b) a deal which does the reverse
And they are irreconcilable
3) and the entire reason for the mess that we're in now is because sufficient numbers of public figures have been too cowardly, cynical or stupid to accept this fundamental division in Leave options
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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A second referendum or #PeoplesVote may be the only way out of a Parliamentary #Brexit impasse. But I do not expect it to heal divisions or, worse, provide any clarity on the way forward. /1
The main issue for me comes back to the question to be asked. All the potential options (remain v no deal; remain v May deal; May deal v no deal; choice of three) seem inadequate. /2
A choice between three options or 1st/2nd preferences (as advocated by @JustineGreening) is attractive but has the basic problem that unless one option gets 50%+ then the ‘winning’ choice will be a minority one. Dissatisfaction all round. /3
Read 10 tweets
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.@SadiqKhan has told @MichelBarnier that EU should start preparations for extending art 50 talks just in case Westm votes down #Brexit deal &instructs GOV to hold a referendum: theguardian.com/politics/2018/…; here's is #thread why LONGER extension than 4-6 weeks isn't straightforward
1. Academic research by @ConUnit_UCL suggests that one needs around 6 M to hold referendum; the preparations to hold a vote include eg. pushing through legislation, assessing intelligibility of the Q on the ballot, preparing polling stations and securing the time for the campaign
2. The first possibility to instruct GOV to hold a vote would be when MPs vote on withdrawal agreement. Looking at the pace of the talks the deal (if it is reached at all) could be presented to Parliament the earliest in DEC; this means that the REF could be held around June/July
Read 11 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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#Remain voted for:

A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.

#BrexitReality
#EnlargedEurope

The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
After #Brexit, the UK will have no influence on EU enlargement. In fact, as setting the EU as a rival, every country that joins the EU will a) strengthen the EU, and b) unravels any trade deals that the UK will have made with that country, isolating it further.
Read 25 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PeoplesVote #Brexit #Remain #brexit #GTTO #lextasy #border #EURO #BrexitReality #leavernow #StopBrexit #lexiternow #today #language #ProjectFear #style #codomain #AIQ #Lexit #brextasy #PeoplesVoteMarch #FARA #EUArmy #JC4PM #Remainers

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