Thread by @zenjournalist

ANALYSIS—The nomination of Princess Ubolratana as the prime minister candidate of the Thai Raksa Chart party is a momentous development which will cause a dramatic realignment of Thai political forces. 1/16

Thai Raksa Chart is one of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's proxy political parties. It was set up as an alternative political vehicle in case the junta dissolved Thaksin's main proxy party Pheu Thai over alleged infractions of electoral rules. 2/16

It's inconceivable that Ubolratana could be a PM candidate for any political party — and particularly one of Thaksin's political parties — without the explicit approval of her brother King Vajiralongkorn. 3/16

It has long been rumoured that Vajiralongkorn wants to broker a "grand bargain" that ends the decade-and-a-half long red-versus-yellow conflict between Thaksin and the royalist and military elite. 4/16

The nomination of Ubolratana suggests that Thaksin has been in contact with Vajiralongkorn, and that the king wants a political settlement ahead of his coronation in May. 5/16

The news signals a rapprochement between the palace and the Shinawatra clan after years of hostility. Royal pardons for Thaksin and his his sister Yingluck Shinawatra are now a real possibility in the months ahead. They will be coming home. 6/16

Once again, Thaksin has pulled off an extraordinary political coup just as he was being written off. 7/16

The junta's main political vehicle, the Palang Pracharath party has submitted the name of dictator Prayut Chan-ocha as its prime minister candidate, and Prayut has accepted. But his hopes of remaining Thailand's premier have now collapsed in ruins. 8/16

In the short and medium-term, Thailand's political conflict will be drastically muted. Although royalist Thais despise Thaksin, few will dare to challenge a peace deal brokered by the king and with Ubolratana as the figurehead of Thaksin's political movement. 9/16

But the deal is very bad for Thai democracy. Vajiralongkorn is already in firm control of the military. If his sister becomes PM, the king will have control of parliament too for the foreseeable future. No political faction will be brave enough to challenge him. 10/16

Thailand is becoming a populist royalist autocracy, with the king controlling the military and parliament with Thaksin's support. 11/16

Meanwhile King Vajiralongkorn has taken full control of the royal fortune of more than $50 billion dollars and is also taking control over a huge swathe of land in the royal district. 12/16

The absolute Thai monarchy was overthrown in a revolution in 1932 but during the reign of King Bhumibol and now King Vajiralongkorn the palace has continually meddled in politics, while claiming to be "above politics". 13/16

Ubolratana is technically a commoner — she renounced her royal status in 1972 when she married Peter Jensen, an American she met at MIT. She divorced him in 1998 and returned to Thailand in 2001, and is treated as royalty by the palace and the Thai media. 14/16

By making this unprecedented overt intervention in politics and installing his sister as PM, Vajiralongkorn is taking a huge risk. Over time, as resentment towards his regime builds, Vajiralongkorn will be unable to pretend he is not deeply & directly involved in politics. 15/16

Sooner or later, there will be a challenge to this royal autocracy.

Today could be the beginning of the end of the Thai monarchy. 16/16