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Okay. I've had a beer. Here's where we are. /THREAD
1. There will be no more negotiation. Not with this govt. Not with Labour. You pass the WA or you crash out. Take it or leave it.
2. You probably get to choose v short extension to sort yourself out, or you get a really long one for other/ new specified solutions... during which time the EU will squeeze so much that Remain looks attactive. Could well happen in that scenario.
3. In these circumstances No Deal is more than possible. It is under-priced. Okay, MV4 fails in late May, you're bundled out. Who after today would roll the dice that the ERG will suddenly swerve that outcome?
4. Our leaders are useless. I say this with reluctance, but (a) May's Premiership is an utter failure. She cannot take people with her, she has no strategy, she tells untruth after untruth, she is not a leader.
4. (b) Leader of the Opposition somehow combines the qualities of being silly, thick and nasty all the same time. Yet again today, he showed he has no business whatever occupying his office. If it's these two in charge, things will go as wrong as they can go.
5. Most likely as a single outcome (But still some way <50%) some form of the WA will be rammed through with a form of softer Brexit talked of in some declaration or other. But the damage to our politics will be semi-permanent.
6. Tories will resist Softer Brexit, but they've foregone any right to do so. Labour will resist and resist a new referendum just as long as they can, as they're trying to dump it again. Might just be seized on by MPs as a very last chance.
7. We need new leadership, new coalitions, new parties, new approaches. Politics as we've done it in the last two decades seems played out.
8. *BUT* UK essentials outside organised politics are strong. Let's take heart from that. In the end, it will be okay, despite rather than because of these idiots. /END
