Thread by @Cardwell_PJ

Fairly sure that many EU-watchers and the public at large pretty shaken by a speech by May that did not actually tell us that much, or so it seemed. More than anything, it was the tone of blame on MPs. But I've gone through it line by line. /1

“Nearly three years have passed since the public voted to leave the EU. It was the biggest democratic exercise in our country’s history."

Tiresome: EUref used the general election voting list. So 'exercise' not bigger, but each vote equal unlike GE where many do not vote. /2

In fact, elections to the European Parliament in the UK are the biggest exercise as the electoral list longer (includes EU citizens), even though turnout much lower (but not voting is still a choice in an election). /3

“I came to office on a promise to deliver on that verdict. In March 2017 I triggered the Article 50 process for the UK to exit the EU and parliament supported it overwhelmingly.

True. But if Parl 'overwhelmingly' supporting her, why did she call a GE? /4

“Two years on, MPs have been unable to agree on a way to implement the UK’s withdrawal.

True. But the govt sits in Parl and largely controls the agenda. The problem is she cannot rely on her own party, rather than blame opposition. So the problem is really with her. /5

“As a result, we will now not leave on time with a deal on 29 March.

She has said before (correctly) that both UK and EU law says that we *will* leave on 29 March. Any delay is subject to the EU agreeing her request. Only revocation of Art 50 makes this true. /6

“This delay is a matter of great personal regret for me.

No doubt. But how many times has she insisted that it will be the case? Over 100 in Parliament alone? Ditto not calling a GE? Ditto not asking for an extension? Ditto not delaying the votes in Parl on the deal? /7

“And of this I am absolutely sure: You, the public, have had enough.

True. Many people have switched off completely. But who has also had enough? The EU side, having to watch this sorry state of affairs. /8

“You’re tired of the infighting, you’re tired of the political games and the arcane procedural rows, tired of MPs talking about nothing else but Brexit when you have real concerns about our children’s schools, our NHS, knife crime.

All true. But... /9

No mention of @the3million. Remember when she stood up after losing MV and cited their plight?

EU side also tired and have better things to get on with, but are watching this closely. An olive branch for the EU side who are trying to save her skin would have been helpful. /10

“You want this stage of the Brexit process to be over and done with. I agree. I am on your side.

Over the past two years, she has spoken exclusively to Leave voters. 'Will of the people', 'result of the ref'. So, true that both are sick of Brexit but this is a hollow claim. /11

“It is now time for MPs to decide.

It has already been time for MPs to decide: and the timing was delayed several times. No-one ever thought they would still be debating in March 2019. No-one. /12

“So, today, I have written to Donald Tusk ... to request a short extension of article 50 up to 30 June to give MPs the time to make a final choice.

'Final choice' means that she has run down the clock, when she explicitly said that she would not. Nothing new here. /13

“Do they want to leave the EU with a deal which delivers on the result of the referendum, that takes control of our money borders and laws while protecting jobs and our national security?

MPs have spent days debating the deal, and they don't buy this. /14

“Do they want to leave without a deal, or do they not want to leave at all causing potentially irreparable damage to public trust not just in this generation of politicians but to our entire democratic process?

This struck me the most. 'No deal' is not qualified here. /15

Despite her own government's advice (plus everyone else's) on how bad a #NoDealBrexit would be for the country, it is not qualified here. Rather, focus is on how bad remaining would be in terms of trust. /16

This was, for me, the worst part of it. There is no mention of any upside to Brexit at all, except that it must be done for reasons of trust. And that means trust in her party, since the purpose of the opposition is .. to oppose. /17

“It is high time we made a decision.
“So far, Parliament has done everything possible to avoid making a choice.

Parliament has twice made a choice that it does not want her deal - by record voting margins. And public opinion is no more favourable to it either. Tone deaf. /18

“Motion after motion and amendment after amendment has been tabled without Parliament ever deciding what it wants.
“All MPs have been willing to say is what they do not want.

OK, but again would not have hurt to say that this has made it impossible for the EU side too. /19

The deal is a negotiation. So all MPs can do is put forward motions: they cannot negotiate a separate agreement and offer Parliament a choice. When the PM has ignored detailed ideas from (e.g.) Scottish govt and faced only with a binary choice, who can be surprised? /20

“I passionately hope MPs will find a way to back the deal I’ve negotiated with the EU, a deal that delivers on the result of the referendum and is the very best deal negotiable.

In other words, with only a week to go: back my deal you have rejected twice. /21

“And I will continue to work night and day to secure the support of my colleagues, the DUP and others for this deal.

'and others' - this is as explicit recognition as you can get that the problem is her party, not Parliament. /22

“But I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than the 30th of June.

This would not even be her choice: the fact that this is a negotiation with another party seems to be lost on her. /23

“Some argue that I’m making the wrong choice and I should ask for a longer extension to the end of the year or beyond to give more time for politicians to argue over the way forward.

Didn't she say last week that a longer extension would be necessary? And risk no Brexit? /24

“That would mean asking you to vote in European elections nearly three years after our country decided to leave.

Yes it would, and it would be absurd if MEPs would sit for just a few months. But given that she said there is no way forward, this cannot be case. /25

“What kind of message would that send? And just how bitter and divisive would that election campaign be at a time when the country desperately needs bringing back together.

The kind of message is that the UK has not found a way out. But this is the least of the problems. /26

Arguing that participating in elections is somehow bad for a 'message' is certainly a novel idea. And this is what is jarring about the whole thing: the ability to avoid elections and giving people an actual judgement on her record is within her grasp. And of course... /27

“Some have suggested holding a second referendum.
“I don’t believe that’s what you want and it is not what I want.

So, despite 'knowing' what the public want for Brexit and Parliament not doing its job, she is not prepared to actually push the question back. /28

This again reinforces what many of her recent actions have been about: giving a speech addressing the EU from leave-voting Grimsby, treating the 52/48 as if it was 90/10 and ignoring Scotland, Wales and NI (except the DUP). /29

“We asked you the question already and you’ve given us your answer.

That David Davis quote about democracies changing their minds again? If the answer was clear to her, then it should be clear to Parliament - and even more so, her Party. It is not. /30

“Now you want us to get on with it.
“And that is what I am determined to do.”

No-one can deny that she has put the hours in. But the whole text, timing and tone of this speech will do precisely nothing for her deal, rather the opposite. Who advised her it was a good idea? /END