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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
, 3 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Imagine the #Trump White House email to the DIA:

“Dear DIA - please send us a map that *doesn’t* show where we think #ISIS still operates in #Iraq and #Syria.

Get on message: #ISIS is defeated.

#MAGA”
I agree entirely w. @hxhassan here - the territorial victory vs. #ISIS is significant, but all signs present on multiple levels indicate an #ISIS resurgence is all-but guaranteed.

In this @politico piece, I suggest the "next" #ISIS is likely to be worse:

politico.com/magazine/story…
@hxhassan @politico #pt: By "worse," I mean "bigger" in manpower. Just take a look at the numbers in my article - the current reality is shocking.

I'm unconvinced #ISIS will benefit again from a foreign fighter mobilization alike 2012-2015, but they may not need it.

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#Trump #ISIS #Iraq #Syria #MAGA #pt

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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
Senior US officials have told me they'd only consider taking the risk of breaking #Russia's air-ban on NW #Syria on 2 conditions:

a) A senior AQ figure emerged as clear target
b) External attack plotting was detected.

I'd treat these "US strike" reports w. some caution for now.
According to well-placed sources in NW #Syria, Huras al-Din figures have on [at least] several occasions raised the importance of re-asserting attention on attacking the West from #Idlib/#Aleppo.

That's a very unpopular proposition, so raising it speaks volumes re. confidence.
Overnight, @CENTCOM confirmed yesterday's strike on #AlQaeda's Huras al-Din in western #Aleppo.

Their reasoning confirms one of the two conditions U.S. officials had previously told me they'd need to break #Russia's air ban over NW #Syria: "plotting external attacks..."
Read 9 tweets
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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
NEW - @WSJ confirms the @CIA & @DeptofDefense have a new "secret" missile - the R9X, or "flying Ginsu" - which kills a selected target with 6 blades, but no explosive payload.

-- "To the targeted person, it's as if a speeding anvil fell from the sky."

wsj.com/articles/secre…
@WSJ @CIA @DeptofDefense #pt: The R9X, or "flying Ginsu," is said to have been used only twice, globally.

One of those times was on Feb 26, 2017, when it killed al-Qaeda deputy leader Abu Al-Khayr al-Masri in #Idlib, #Syria.

See the image I tweeted from the scene, that day:

@WSJ @CIA @DeptofDefense #pts: The #R9X quite clearly causes no damage to the surrounding area, massively minimizing the risk to civilians.

Look at the targeted vehicle itself - the body of the Kia is entirely intact, save for the penetrated interior, right through the roof:

Read 3 tweets
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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
Reports tonight suggest #ISIS has captured the town of al-Kawm (north of al-Sukhna, in #Syria's #Badiya) from the #Assad regime.

A number of #ISIS operations have been reported around Kobajeb, al-Shula & NE of al-Sukhna in recent weeks.
#pt: Amid #ISIS's reported capture of al-Kawm today, #ISIS has also been linked to at least 2 major assaults on pro-#Assad positions outside al-Sukhna in the last 3 days - some say totaling 30+ pro-regime fatalities.

#Syria
#pt: Reports coming from pro-#Assad sources say "2 battalions" of the #SAA's 18th Reserve were besieged by #ISIS in al-Kawm several days ago.

Only today was the siege lifted amid a counter-attack by Liwa al-Quds.
Read 6 tweets

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@MsEntropy
Take it from me, an ISIS expert - this Tweet will not age well. #Syria
For a (mere) glimpse of what I mean, just skim @jenanmoussa's comments on reactions from Northern #Syria and the Kurdish situation:
I'd like to remind you of some brief presidential milestones in recent Middle East history, from Reagan to Trump. #Syria #Iraq
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@EHSANI22
Thread on Syria Coverage: Reporters & experts were eager to establish access with insiders to help analyze the conflict. For reasons to be explained, Govt side was not going to provide that access. Those in Opp, however, were eager to tell outsiders their side of the story
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