Thread by @uk_domain_names

People who argue against the demographic changes that mean Leave voters are dying and being replaced by younger Remainers by saying "ah, but the Remainers are getting older so they're becoming Leavers" are missing the point.

Yes, people tend to get more conservative as they age.

But people are shaped by their environment. Young people who have grown up in a world of cheap travel and global connectivity have a very different formative experience from those who grew up during or in the aftermath of WW2.

So Remainers won't simply become Leavers by ageing. It's not the next stage of the attitudinal conveyor belt. Over generations, attitudes really do change, and stay changed.

What does that mean in practice? It means there not only is almost certainly no majority to Leave now, but the never will be in the future either, not unless something fundamental changes about the EU we simply can't foresee now.

The 2016 referendum was that "one perfect summer" for Leave. There will never be another.