Thread by @fetzert

Even more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.

Waves 7/8 asked participants what they expect how the EU referendum is going to pan out... i.e. it asked what probability respondents attach to a #Leave vote, some subsequent waves ask whether people regret how they vote.

20 - 30% of respondents stated the probability of a #Leave success is less than 40%. Now, the nice thing is the BES also subsequently asked, how people voted and whether they regret how they voted -- it asks whether people are #remainernow

Regretting leave is most prevalent among those who attached a low probability to a Leave result (10 - 15% of the 30% leave voters who didnt expect a #leave result regret how they voted). Interestingly, there is also sig. share of regretters among those certain of #leave success.

Again, these are non negligible numbers given the tightness of the #referendum -- its quite clear that #EUref was swung by protest votes and is not a solid basis for politicians to implement any radical version of #Brexit. A #PeoplesVote is the only responsible course of action!