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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The tragedy of the Brexit negotiations? After 3yrs, we have a deal which falls FAR short of both side's aspirations, even if it's agreed. UK politics, the peace process and the UK-EU relationship are poisoned, without any of the big questions being settled
politico.eu/article/how-uk…
1) The Irish backstop has become so toxic for the DUP it risks permanently undermining power-sharing. The divisions in NI have deepened and the peace process damaged, just as the EU predicted in **February 2017** but pressed on anyway, without any acceptable alternative from UK.
2) The cost is clear, but the rewards? None of the major questions have been answered. “The big loss is that they have not settled the question for the future,” one senior official close to Barnier admitted. Was it all worth it? “History will judge.” politico.eu/article/how-uk…
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
After three wonderful years at @POLITICOEurope, working with some of the best people I've ever worked with, I'm thrilled and excited to announce I'm joining @TheAtlantic this summer. It's been such a ride since 2016 — now for the next challenge!
Big thanks to: @Stephen_G_Brown, a top man & super editor; @kate_day — legend; @KaminskiMK for taking a punt and pushing me all the way; the fab @cbudoffbrown; & of course @CharlieCooper8 @NewsAnnabelle @james_randerson @Jack_Blanchard_ and everyone in Brussels! I'll miss you all
Super excited to join @prashantrao @AdrienneLaF @JeffreyGoldberg @IsaacDovere @helenlewis @YasmeenSerhan and everyone else at @TheAtlantic
Read 3 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Brexit clouds lifting a little here in Egypt. If things happen (a big if), it's becoming clear *how* they'll happen. Provisional codicil is worked up alongside changes to future relationship. EU Council will agree — BUT ONLY on March 21/22 and ONLY if MPs have agreed it before 1/
I sketch the shape of this route out of the crisis here politico.eu/article/eu-bre…, but it's worth emphasising this is still a LONG SHOT. Requires MPs to back a conditional deal. Then almost guarantees an extension to get the deal through parliament 2/
End game?
1. Cooper-Boles passes
2. Cox agrees deal
3. Withdrawal Agreement amended by Cox passes Commons March 12
4. May asks for "technical extension" March 13
5. EU agrees Cox-amended WA March 21/22
6. UK ratifies new WA
7. UK puts WA into law
8. Brexit May 1-June 30?
Ends/
Read 3 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Inside Theresa May's mind as decision time approaches: Deal or no deal, each risking a split in the Conservative Party, a Corbyn government and the end of her premiership.

What will she do? Delay, delay, delay and... ???

1/
 politico.eu/article/inside…
Option one: Deal with Labour, country before party.

“No deal means the rapid break up of the UK,” one senior govt official told POLITICO. “Sturgeon will organize a unilateral independence referendum and there will be calls for a border poll in N Ireland."

Tories split

2/
Option two: Hunker down for no-deal, party first (because Corbyn is worse).

“For most of us, the Conservative Party is a means to an end,” said one Cab minister. “Theresa is different. For [her] it is something closer to love, to family."

Tories still split. Economic crisis

3/
Read 5 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Graham Brady says here: “How to bypass the backstop and come up with a solution? Crucially we don’t need to hammer out those details before tomorrow.” With 29 March fast approaching, when should these details, elusive during 18 months of EU-UK #Brexit negotiations, be hammered? 1
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. A quick gut of the Juncker #brexit letter.

Shorter: not a game-change as expected, but SOME new stuff that might influence waverers. 1/Thread
First up - the Withdrawal Agreement isn't getting reopened. That's still the line, see second para in letter, which is here /2

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Then repeats December European Council conclusions which (as May said to House) do themselves have legal force - all that good stuff about "expeditiously" concluding a trade deal etc.

(Leave aside for now UK doesn't know what deal it wants) /3
Read 17 tweets
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James Barisic 🇪🇺 #FBPE
@jamesmb
Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
Read 12 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
5 slides on the #Brexit #Backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland from @DPhinnemore and me.

1. Why there will be a Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus a synopsis of the EU and UK positions on the matter.

(Thread 1/6)
2. What is already agreed (green), agreed in principle (yellow), and not agreed (white) in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland in the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
2/6
3. What has been offered in writing from the UK government on this Backstop (Protocol).
Ref. the Technical Note on Temporary Customs Arrangements published today.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/6
Read 7 tweets

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