Thread by @pmdfoster

On the point about the need for 'clarity' and why Macron's demands may yet lead to a short extension. My newsletter today...../1 Thread

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The issue is that Macron saw May in Paris on Tuesday, but on Wednesday he enters #EUCO and is still plainly not convinced.

So what can @theresa_may say today that she couldn't say yesterday? Not a lot. "We're having some more useless talks tomorrow." /2

@theresa_may If May cannot answer basic questions:

- are you prepared to be in a Customs Union with the EU?

- if we gave you a long extension, what would you use it for?

That's trouble. /3

@theresa_may It is true that Angela Merkel, from her remarks to Parliament, is instinctively in favour of a longer extension.

But if Macron makes it an issue of unity (a word he used on the way in) then Merkely will put avoiding a Franco-German split over any consideration of dates /4

@theresa_may May's own suggestion of June 30 doesn't help really.

It just makes a mockery of EU elections - which she is open about not wanting to hold. /5

@theresa_may No. The pinch-point comes earlier than June 30.

If EU 27 don't want to risk a 'no deal' on eve of European polls, (May 22) then the short extension date comes forward. /6

@theresa_may If that's where France drives the debate - to early May - it doesn't necessarily preclude a later extension IF the UK can say what it wants.

Macron has consistently had a larger risk appetite for 'no deal' - French believe UK will quickly come to heal. /7

@theresa_may But they also note that Parliament is very firmly against a 'no deal' - which begs question of how big that risk really is, if there was a take-it-or-leave it extension.

Or faced with a real hard deadline, would UK do the deal, revoke OR make real choices about future. /8

@theresa_may Macron has left himself some wiggle room.

He says he will entertain a long extension for elections, referendums or a sincere engagment with a different Brexit.

Just not for a fudge. /9

Is this where it ends up? The leaders are still talking.

But there was no Franco-German deal before hand.

And as per earlier tweet, France were "hanging tough", per source. /10

Long evening ahead, I think - I'd not rule out any result at the moment. /11