Thread by @EvanLaksmana

Now that most quick counts are in with more than 80-90% of the sample, it seems safe to say Jokowi has about 9-10% lead over Prabowo (Kawal pemilu data is only abt 3% data).

@jakpost called it this morning 👇 #Pemilu2019 <minor thread>

Most qc data on legislative (DPR) elections and parties' vote shares are in too. As many called it, newer parties didn't make it (incl PSI, who graciously conceded):
PDIP, Gerindra, PKB, PKS, Nasdem likely ↗️
Golkar, Demokrat, PAN, PPP (barely made it) likely ↘️

Side note1: New Order family party, Berkarya, didn't make it but still got about 2%. The Suharto nostalgic has always been more hype than real but this is also the first time they pool their resources all into 1 platform. Something to watch in the coming years.

Side note2: many younger urban middle-class supporters of PSI are likely disappointed. But PSI started something new and created ripples of optimism. Nothing to sneeze at. PSI now has tons of lessons to learn from to hopefully translate those ripples into waves in 2024.

Back to data, we don't know yet how the shares will turn into seats. @jenfrentasia tells me PKB, for ex, has a highly concentrated votes -> may not translate to larger # seats. The math is exceedingly complex under new rules, etc. so a tad too early to predict who controls DPR.

Assuming the current coalition stands (I'm a bit skeptical it will), JKW might control abt half the seats. Once official results are out, the deals will revolve around 2 inter-related Qs:
1) who and how to govern
2) who will run in 2024 and how

The hope that JKW will push thru reforms in his final term, whether for "legacy shopping" or others, should be viewed w/ the 2nd q above. But unlike SBY's last term (where he has PD and his family to think about), JKW is less personally bounded to PDIP (or other parties).

It wld be interesting to see if in JKW's last term, he wld invest more capital in one political party (may or may not be PDIP) to help "secure" his legacies down the line, and whether PDIP cld field a presidential/vp contender in 2024 fr within.

2024 will be interesting, to say the least. The names being thrown around are relatively "young" folks, incl Anies, Sandiaga, AHY as 3 possible front-runners (last 2 hv their own vehicles). A major party in 2024 shld be interested in a younger nominee for VP, at least.

In any case, Indonesians finished the world's most complicated single-day election peacefully. For this, we should be proud. Hopefully as we wait for the official results, we will keep the peaceful momentum. #IndonesiaMemilih <END>