Thread by @PoliticsTosser

ComRes 16 Apr EU Election Voting Intention by Region Converted to MEPs.

@ComRes report that before the campaign gets underway, Labour look set to dominate & that the Brexit Party may not do as well as reported in most of the MSM. Alas, there's no NI data, GB only.

(THREAD) 1/28

Our first region is Scotland. It's no great surprise to discover @theSNP look well-placed to do well in the #EuroElection & are set to gain a seat from UKIP:

SNP (35%), 3
CON (18%), 2
LAB (11%), 1
BREX (6%), 0
UKIP (6%), 0
GRN (4%), 0
CHUK (3%), 0
LDEM (2%), 0

S1/2 (2/28)

It would be nice to think that supporters of the no-hope unionist Remain parties in Scotland might get behind @UKLabour, giving them the opportunity to retain their second seat, currently set to go Tory.
S2/2 (3/28)

Our second region is NorthEast which in 2014 elected @Jude_KD & @PaulBrannenNE of @UKLabour plus a Kipper. @ComRes report Lab seem set to dominate here collecting all 3 MEPs:

LAB (55%), 3
LDEM (8%), 0
UKIP (8%), 0
CON (7%), 0
GRN (7%), 0
CHUK (5%), 0
BREX (1%), 0

NE 1/2 (4/28)

If you're reluctant to vote Lab in the North East, it's not at all clear which small Remain party to choose with @LibDems ahead by a scintilla. It'd be nice if a consensus candidate could emerge with the Tories receiving similar support.

NE2/2 (5/28)

In 2014, 3 top Lab MEPs @TheresaMEP, @WajidKhanMEP & @julie4nw were elected in the North West.

If ComRes (16/4) are right, Lab look set to gain a 4th at the expense of the Tories:

LAB (32%), 4
BREX (22%), 3
CON (12%), 1
UKIP (7%), 0
GRN (5%), 0
LDEM (4%), 0
CHUK (3%), 0

6/28

It's hard to see which of GRN & LD are your best non-Lab bet but unless things change, CHUK ain't it! The three combined rival the Toriesin the North West.

NW2/2 (7/28)

Next is #Wales. In 2014 Remainers @derekvaughan (@WelshLabour) & @JillEvansMEP (@Plaid_Cymru) we elected alongside a Tory & Kipper. To my surprise ComRes predict:

LAB (37%), 3
CHUK (15%), 1
BREX (11%), 0
CON (10%), 0
PC (5%), 0
LDEM (3%), 0
UKIP (3%), 0
GRN (3%), 0

W1/2 (8/28)

If this holds up non-Lab Remainers must vote @TheIndGroup since the Brexit Party is breathing down their neck. It's a shocking poll for @Plaid_Cymru.

W2/2 (9/28)

5th is Yorks/Humber won last time by UKIP (3) with two Remainers elected, Lab's @RCorbettMEP & @LindaMcAvanMEP. If ComRes (16/4) is realised CHUK look set to take a Brexitremist seat.

LAB (27%), 2
BREX (24%), 2
CON (17%), 1
CHUK (15%), 1
LDEM (5%), 0
GRN (4%), 0
UKIP (0%), 0

On these numbers, LD & GRN candidates are on a hiding to nothing & should back @TheIndGroup if they can't stomach the more robust anti-Brexitremist choice, @UKLabour.

YH2/2 (11/28)

In 2014 the West Mids returned 3 UKIP & 2 CONs plus 2 Lab Remainers: @sionsimon & @NeenaGmep. ComRes (16/4) suggests @TheIndGroup may pick up an MEP from the Brexitremists:

LAB (24%), 2
CON (21%), 2
BREX (12%), 1
UKIP (11%), 1
CHUK (9%), 1
LDEM (5%), 0
GRN (5%), 0

WM1/2 (12/28)

It's a pretty depressing outlook for both the @LibDems & @TheGreenParty in the West Midlands. However, if their voters would choose one or the other, better-still CHUK, another Remain MEP might well be elected.

WM2/2 (13/28)

In 2014 the only non-Tory Remain MEP returned in East Mids was Lab's @GlenisWillmott, now retired. If @ComRes (16/4) is realised, Lab stand to gain a 2nd MEP from Brexiters:

LAB (26%), 2
CON (21%), 2
BREX (16%), 1
CHUK (6%), 0
UKIP (5%), 0
LDEM (4%), 0
GRN (4%), 0

EM1/2 (14/28)

East Mids graphically shows the problem of the advent of the 3rd small Remain party: CHUK/GRN/GRN combined beat the Brexit Party on these numbers. Individually they are nowhere. A major switch to @UKLabout might secure them a 3rd MEP.

EM2/2 (15/28).

If ComRes are right, Remain is making progress in East Region! Last time CONs & UKIP got 3 apiece but Lab's MEP, @alexlmayer, at least supports a #PeoplesVote.

CON (22%), 2
BREX (20%), 2
LAB (17%), 2
LDEM (10%), 1
CHUK (7%), 0
GRN (4%), 0
UKIP (3%), 0

EE1/2 (16/28)

At this stage, @LibDems look best-placed of the small Remain parties & stand to gain an MEP. However, the 3rd party introduction hasn't helped & it's a great shame @vincecable's suggestion to share the list was not taken up.

EE2/2 (17/28)

In 2014, 2 Tories (incl. @CharlesTannock) & odious Gerard Batten were returned in addition to 4 Lab MEPs & @GreenJeanMEP. Lab look set to storm 2019 with a Tory wipeout:

LAB (49%), 5
BREX (10%), 1
CHUK (9%), 1
LDEM (9%), 1
CON (7%), 0
GRN (4%), 0
UKIP (3%), 0

L1/2 (18/28)

Were these figures realised the GRNs would lose their MEP with both CHUK & LDs in addition to Lab all gaining one. It suggests if voting on Remain alone, the capital's Greens should vote either @TheIndGroup or @LibDems.

L2/2 (19/28)

The largest Region, South East, returned 4 UKIP, 3 Cons plus 1 each of Lab LD & Grn in 2014. The picture painted by @ComRes (16/4) is extremely encouraging for Remain:

LAB (20%), 3
LDEM (19%), 3
BREX (18%), 2
CON (14%), 2
CHUK (6%), 0
GRN (3%), 0
UKIP (2%), 0

SE1/2 (20/28)

What is clear is that, if you turn your nose up at Labour, CHUK & GRN voters should get behind the @LibDems in the South East.

SE2/2 (21/28)

Last but not least is the South West, which in 2014 returned 2 UKIP & 2 Tory MEPs plus the both EXCELLENT @ClareMoodyMEP & @MollyMEP. It looks like not much will change:

CON (21%), 2
BREX (20%), 2
LAB (15%), 1
CHUK (12%), 1
LDEM (6%), 0
GRN (4%), 0
UKIP (2%), 0

SW1/2 (22/28)

If ComRes (16/4) are right in the SW, Molly Cato sadly stands to lose her seat to CHUK. With LD & Grn votes, it's possible they could take a berth from either BREX or CON.

SW2/2 (23/28)

So where does this leave us for GB as a whole? With 2014 in brackets, the prediction is:

LAB (28%), 28 [24%, 20]
CON (15%), 14 [23%, 19]
BREX (15%), 14
CHUK (8%), 5
LDEM (8%), 5 [7%, 1]
UKIP (4%), 1 [27%, 24]
GRN (4%), 0 [7%, 3]
SNP (3%), 3 [2% 2]
PC (*%), 0 [1%, 1]

GB1/5

Most importantly it looks as if the Brexit Party/UKIP go from topping the poll in 2014 to tie 2nd in 2019 losing 4% of the combined vote & 10 MEPs in the process.

Lab gain significantly; Cons lose significantly.

CHUK & LDs look set to make headway while GRN bombs.

GB2/5 25/28

There may be bad news for @Plaid_Cymru & good for @theSNP. But, beyond the anticipated hobbling of Leave candidates versus 2014, the main story is the 8-MEP gain for @UKLabour if these voting intention figures are realised.

But there are a few caveats.

GB3/5 26/28

Regional breakdowns are based on small individual samples ranging from only 36 for the North East, 39 for Wales, up to a maximum of 128 for London. It includes only respondents more likely than not to vote.

Data taken from bit.ly/2GycP0S p30.

GB4/5 27/28

Note these numbers differ significantly from those of @YouGov (17 Apr) that have BREX toppoing the poll in England.

It's far too soon to be deciding which smaller Remain party you might vote for now based on such analysis. Let's see how stable the data proves to be.

GB5/5 END