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If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"
Also recall: turnout in the 2016 Dem primaries was relatively low, which augured Hillary's eventual defeat. It's likely to be much higher in 2020. And people turning out could disproportionately be "normie Dems" who like Biden and aren't interested in sweeping structural change
In general, there's a tendency for pundits to assume that every election cycle subsequent to 2016 will produce the same kind of "disruption" as was evident across the spectrum that year. Alternatively, it could've just been a unique aberration. "Good" economy would reinforce this
The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020
I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume
Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc
In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
