Thread by @tekaldas

Maybe it's time to restate the obvious. Going to war with Iran wouldn't just be wrong, it would be exceptionally stupid. It would make the most disastrous military decision in modern US history, invading Iraq, look like a cake walk. This is for many obvious reasons listed below

Iran's population is triple that of Iraq's 2003 population. The US occupation struggled to ever properly secure consistent control over Iraq's population and secure the country for its citizens. Low estimates for civilian casualties of the war and occupation exceed 100,000 Iraqis

Iran is a far larger country. It covers quadruple Iraq's land mass w/complex mountainous terrain that, to effectively secure, wld require far more troops than Iraq. Remember with far fewer troops than needed, our occupations of Afghanistan & Iraq heavily strained US capacity

Now for the hard parts, Iran's military is far better trained & equipped than Iraq's with extensive experience in recent fighting. Much different than an atrophied & gutted Iraqi military in 2003. Even without nukes it has conventional ballistic missiles that extend its reach

War in Iran would be long. Their military will not roll over like Iraq. China & Russia will likely seize an opportunity to back Iran in order to secure concessions on oil when the war is over. This could plug its likely cashflow problems if it shuts down the Strait of Hormuz

Past war games have indicated that even with a deployment of US naval assets, Iranians can shut down the Strait of Hormuz causing a global energy crisis & they almost certainly will. There are already indicators that the US economy is headed for recession. This may guarantee it

More challenging still. Iraq has capacity through its surrogates & allies to make this a 5 front war. Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, Houthis in Yemen & allies in Afghanistan & then Iran itself. It can wreak havoc on entire region targeting US allies & assets

These proxy wars won't just harm US assets, they'll destabilize an already fragile region causing untold casualties. A far smaller conflict in Iraq caused decades of chaos. ISIS was formed in the crucible of Iraq's occupation. Imagine what war with Iran on 5 fronts may produce

The regional turmoil in 2011 will be nothing compared to war w/Iran in which it mobilizes its proxies. A US war has 1 goal, regime change & faced with an existential threat Iran's govt will not hesitate to use every asset at its disposal & worry abt consequences after it survives

If US Gulf allies who have raced to stockpile arms enter a war the deadly impact could be amplified further. Imagine Saudi & the UAE entering fight with the US & being hit by Iranian ballistic missiles. Imagine their willingness to inflict civilian casualties in that context

Also if Europe thought the migration flows from latest conflicts were bad, they better get ready for a different order of magnitued with this. If nothing else convinces them that appeasing a belligerent US president is poor policy this may be the one thing that could.

To whatever extent Iranians dislike their govt there should be no repeat of absurd claims that US occupiers will be greeted as liberators. It was nonsense in Iraq & it will be even less tenable in Iran where the population has seen the devastating cost of US occupation firsthand

I realize for now escalations we're reading abt involve a fair bit of spin & leaks seeking media hype by hawkish opportunists with a passion for illegal warfare like John Bolton, but given the president's incapcaity to control his team things could easily escalate into a real war

My concerns above may be a worst case scenario but they are also a fairly realistic one. No one should underestimate the potential human, political and economic cost of such a war should it break out. It will likely be worse than many of us have ever witnessed in our lifetimes

Those advocating for war are delusional ideologues or charlatans. Either way they'll have huge amounts of blood on their hands. Undoubtedly, many already do from Iraq, but since DC habitually excuses war crime advocates in the name of civility they remain influential & respected

I hope everything we're reading is hot air & blows over but I fear how easily a few escalations can spin out of control. It must be the priority of every one of us and every responsible govt in the world to do what it can to prevent this madness from spinning out of control

One last note. If the US gets into a war with Iran its credibility when threatening force or even attention anywhere else on Earth will be severely diminished. Iran's rise benefitted from US quagmires in Iraq & Afghanistan. Who will benefit from a new even worse quagmire in Iran?