Thread by @arhemant

#CricketThread: Time for a long, hard look at India's statistical data since the 2015 Cricket World Cup (CWC) to understand where they may finish in 2019.

Since the end of CWC 2015, India have made 21,043 runs in 86 ODIs, behind only England who’re at 22,289.

Run-scoring has hinted at winners in previous World Cups.

I have more on that in a thread on England.

Read that here:

https://twitter.com/arhemant/status/1132712658128367616

India average 5.47 runs per over, behind England (at an all-time high of 6.02) and South Africa (5.49).

India hit a 4/6 every 9.74 balls, again behind England (also an all-time high of 8.44 balls) and South Africa (9.67).

THE BEST 1-2-3 IN THE WORLD

Kohli, Rohit, Shikhar have 10944 runs – 52% of the team’s runs, underlining the team’s dependence on them.

@imVkohli reigns supreme – 4379 runs, 61.41 runs in 63.46 balls per outing, 19 hundreds, and a boundary every 9.77 balls. The world's best.

@ImRo45 is second best – 3790 runs, 53.38 runs in 56.01 balls per outing, 15 hundreds, and a boundary every 8.41 balls.

@SDhawan25 is next – 2848 runs, 42.51 runs in 43.60 balls per outing, 8 hundreds.

He’s India’s most consistent boundary hitter, with one every 7.16 ball.

Thanks mainly to Kohli, Rohit, and Dhawan, India’s batsmen have an average crease occupation of 35.85 balls – the highest of all teams at the CWC.

After this, things get trickier.

4-6 – THE SOFT UNDERBELLY

The No. 4 slot is a problem. In 79 innings, India have tried 12 players who’ve scored

2411 runs (ranked 5/10 of the teams at this World Cup)
at an average of 37.09 (ranked 7/10).

@klrahul11 is the prospective No. 4. His numbers (and his technical weaknesses) don’t inspire confidence.

He’s made 63 runs in 6 innings batting at 3, 4, 5 with a highest of 26.

But we know he’s a much better opener – 280 runs in 7.

India lost some solidity in the middle by dropping @rayuduambati (who averaged 36.58 runs off 44.58 balls per innings).

In came @vijayshankar260 – showing promise but just 9 games old. His numbers aren't much to base any conclusions on. I wish him well.

Kedar Jadhav (29.59 runs off 28.74 balls) who also doubles up as a partnership breaker. His fitness worries though.

THE DHONI SITUATION

We can fill up a book talking about @msdhoni and his weaponized wicketkeeping.

His superhuman line stumpings and run-outs gives India an edge.

His batting clearly isn’t what it used to be.

Till CWC 2015, Dhoni scored at 5.35 runs an over.

Since then, he’s scored at 4.88 – well below India’s run rate of 5.47 in the same period.

The team will look to Dhoni for solidity -- 40.34 balls per innings for 32.80 runs.

But the firepower will have to come from somewhere else.

Dhoni strikes a 4 or 6 once every 13.17 balls – not impressive for a top-order batsmen.

For India, he’s ahead only of Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvi, Kuldeep, Jadeja, Rahul, and Karthik on that metric.

Of the 150 players at the World Cup, he ranks 105 on that metric.

Interestingly @DineshKarthik was brought into the team as a finisher, and he’s subsidised Dhoni’s slowness in some chases.

But amazingly Karthik’s numbers – 4.51 runs per over, 14.49 balls per boundary – are worse than Dhoni.

Of course, we know both Dhoni and Karthik are capable of much better.

The numbers notwithstanding, I wish Dhoni well since this is his final CWC.

I just hope there are few games in which he needs to bat more than 20 overs.

THE ALL-ROUNDERS

Finally, the balance is provided by @hardikpandya7 who brings in much-needed firepower.

Hardik scores at 7.00 per over (best in India), with a 4 or 6 every 7.46 balls (best after Dhawan at 7.16).

If he makes an impact with the ball, well and good.

It was hard to imagine a CWC squad without @imjadeja. But his recent numbers are below his overall career stats.

Since 2015, his 32 games have yielded 31 wickets (at 48.32; ER 5.01) and with the bat he’s averaged 14.10 runs off 17.40 balls per.

Jadeja’s role at the CWC would also be limited to games that demand playing a left-arm spinner.

I'm not sure how much the ball would seam and swing. If it does, @BhuviOfficial will have a role to play. The CWC games so far have ranged between very high scoring and very low scoring. There should be a few games where Bhuvi's swing bowling makes an impact.

With the bat, he'll be the leader of the tail, which is extraordinarily bad for India. (Will come to that in a bit.)

Summary: India have the strongest 1, 2, 3 on paper.

But England, New Zealand, South Africa, Pakistan have stronger 4-7.

EXTRAORDINARILY BAD TAIL

Further down, India have a tail that can’t bat for its life.

Their 8-11 are supremely skilled bowlers who are also extraordinarily bad batsmen.

Just how bad?

Since CWC 2015, India’s 8-11 have:

- Scored 963 runs (ranked 10/10 of the World Cup teams)

- Batted 10.24 balls per game (ranked 9/10)

- Scored 7.64 runs per game (10/10)

- Hit a 4/6 every 14.18 balls, & 91 boundaries in all (both 10/10)

- Scored at just 4.48/over (8/10)

In short, 1-2 are in dodgy form, 4-5-6 are lightweights, and 8-11 are practically non-existent.

Kohli can't win the Cup on his own.

ONCE IN A LIFETIME BOWLING SQUAD

Lucky for India, they are travelling with the strongest group of bowlers to ever don the blue.

In @Jaspritbumrah93, @MdShami11, @imkuldeep18, @yuzi_chahal and Bhuvi, and Jadeja, Hardik, Jadhav for back-up, India all bases covered.

Since CWC 2015, India have taken 629 wickets, the most for any team in the same period. England are next with 588.

The bowling Strike Rate is the purest distillation of a bowler’s penetrative skills.

Since CWC 2015, India have struck once every 36.7 balls.

The CWC-winning Australian squads of 2003 and 2007 averaged 36.5 each, and 37.00 in 2015.

So we know this Indian squad is up there with the absolute best.

The presence of four outliers – Bumrah, Kuldeep, Chahal, Shami – makes it possible for India to collectively take cheap wickets.

India have taken 7.31 wickets per ODI – the best for any Indian World Cup squad, and comparable with the all-time great bowling squads.

The 2015 South Africa squad leads the way with 7.51.

India have conceded 5.21 runs per over – top class numbers, and behind only Bangladesh at 5.07.

Afghanistan did better, but they played largely against non-qualifiers.

When it comes to chasing, India are only behind England. While England have won 4 chases out of 5, India have won 2.06 games against every loss.

When it comes to defending totals, India lead: 2.09 wins for every game lost, comfortably ahead of England at 1.73.

In summary, where do I expect India to finish?

Based on these numbers they should finish in the top 4, and if the batting can shrug off its weaknesses, then a top 2 finish would be well deserved.