Thread by @uk_domain_names

The EU keeps making big juicy trade deals to open up new markets (Canada, Japan, Vietnam, Mercosur etc.) so it is in effect vaccinating itself against the decline in trade with the UK that will result from Brexit, especially no deal.

In other words, this plethora of new trade deals gives many EU producers new options and new potential customers. Ways, in other words, to make up the shortfall our leaving the EU would otherwise create. Doesn't work for all businesses and sectors, but it is significant.

So not only do we need the EU more than they need us (due to the relative importance of each other's markets) but they in effect need us less with every passing day. Without anyone really noticing, they're moving on from relying on us even while we're still EU members.

The UK may be a major EU trade partner. But look at the amount of trade covered by combining all those new trade deals together, and a picture emerges of a EU less and less dependent on us. They're building a jigsaw of replacements to cover the loss of one big piece.

Yet almost literally nobody is talking about this. The arguments raging now are the same arguments as 3 years ago - but the situation has evolved!

Example: "Annual trade between the EU and Japan could increase by nearly €36 billion once the agreement is implemented in full." That's only a fraction of the UK's trade with the EU, but...
A) That's only one example
B) EU-UK trade will decline, not stop
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/i…

It's like finding three or four part-time jobs in anticipation of losing your full-time job. May not be quite as convenient, but once you get used to the patchwork of roles, your income will be secure again.