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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
To be entirely fair Theresa May never had a full Brexit plan in 3 years. I don't expect a new PM to suddenly have a workable plan, and I'm not sure he needs one - probably better to say on first international calls "we want a deal - can you help"
Also a reminder that as ever in international negotiations the most important part is reaching internal consensus. Unless Conservative Party voices on both sides of the Brexit debate can be at least engaged, plus at least some Labour MPs, the EU can do little other than wait
First PM job with regard to Brexit negotiations - appoint a fully empowered Chief Negotiator to be Barnier's counterpart. We have never had one. Choose wisely - you want someone with broad respect in the UK and the PM's trust. Decide if they also run a department - probably not
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This debate rather passed me by, and I suspect it will rather pass most MPs by, but there are some critical questions, none more than 'why FTAs with US, Australia, New Zealand'? No convincing rationale has ever been offered, given these are already relatively open economies.
Second fundamental trade question, why do we want trade agreements? What are our particular exporting sectors, or rather, what will they be in the years to come, and what barriers that can be addressed do we seek to remove?
Third question, what do we have to offer to trade agreement partners in exchange for what we want? Do we want to retain some high tariffs so they can be bargained away, or not? Otherwise we are pretty open as an economy except in terms of visas. Is that our big offer?
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Many words will be written and spoken about Brexit and Boris Johnson but there's only one fundamental choice - accept the conditions that come with a relationship with the EU, or go for a long term no-deal position, likely to mean early general election of uncertain outcome
You can negotiate the EU's conditions a bit. But there's no choice where we get everything we want, with no conditions. GATT24 isn't going to save you, or any WTO agreements, or calling the Irish border a fictional problem, or whatever the invention of the day is
No-deal is also not a sustainable end state, as a trading nation we will need deals with our nearest trading partners, with their conditions, and they will happen with a change of Government. So the real choice we're facing is accept an EU deal comes with conditions now or later
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Good and realistic reading. Yet again looks like a Liam Fox valedictory, the detail doesn't seem to chime with the Johnson 'believe harder' agenda. And like so much trade policy too much focus on Free Trade Agreements not enough on the other tools available
Well this is awkward, but perhaps if the relevant members of Congress believe harder then a UK-US trade deal can still happen (more likely incidentally is a 'trade' deal which is about cooperation rather than tariff removal etc)
Anyway, thoughts at this time with the officials who have to write the Brexit briefing notes for new Ministers, balancing being helpful, with also having to explain a few realities. Treasury must be particularly looking forward to this given some suggestions of Ministers there
Read 3 tweets

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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
So why is @theresa_may so stuck on her lousy deal? Well she has 4 objectives and her deal meets these and nothing else does I believe this explains much about her conduct the objectives are as follows THREAD
1/keeping the tory party together and in power this of course is the top priority. Theresa may is aware that any other options be it dal no deal or some BRINO deal with Corbyn would instantly result in a walk out by one faction and with no majority the gov would fall
2/ May is actually terrified of no deal. All the evidence is that this lwould result in awful consequences for millions of people which would destroy any government that presided over it if she wanted no deal she would not have negotiated a deal 2 start with
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Alexandrine Kántor
@Alexa_Kantor
Theresa May's machiavelic plans have to stop.

If she really believes her negotiations are that Strong and Stable, she should stop this embarrassing political circus and openly go for her No-Deal #Brexit plan, instead of sneakily engineering it.

We know that's your plan. 1/10
When she decided to put forward her support to #BradyAmendment, she knew it would be rejected by the EU negotiators.
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But it is a sneaky way to put forward a No-Deal #Brexit and later putting the blame on the EU. 2/10
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
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/3
Read 26 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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