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Happy Monday🌞! Busy week in Asia & esp in the Eurozone as we got ECB likely to pave the path for life deeper below zero 🥶❄️🧟♂️
Since 2014, deposit rate went from -0.1% to -0.4%, but growth is MIA & negative yielding bonds expand to infinity & financials NIM squeezed. Yep😬.
Since 2014, deposit rate went from -0.1% to -0.4%, but growth is MIA & negative yielding bonds expand to infinity & financials NIM squeezed. Yep😬.
As mentioned on Friday, we got our fav data today & sorry to say but: Korea🇰🇷 1st 20-day of exports, or shall I say lack of shipment, contracted further to -13.6%.
Yes, we are in H2 2019 & that recovery or V-shaped growth is not happening guys. So that BOK cut was a good call😉.
Yes, we are in H2 2019 & that recovery or V-shaped growth is not happening guys. So that BOK cut was a good call😉.
Let's look at this abysmal trade news for Asia (yes, Korea is very integrated in the regional supply chain & so its underwhelming performance is BAD NEWS FOR ASIA😱):
a) Exports -13.6% YoY & imports -10.3%🥶
b) Chips down -30.2% or 1/3rd of 2018's 🥶
c) Shipment to China -19%🥶
a) Exports -13.6% YoY & imports -10.3%🥶
b) Chips down -30.2% or 1/3rd of 2018's 🥶
c) Shipment to China -19%🥶
Remember my rant last wk on China CONTRACTION OF IMPORTS? Well, well, well, the inverse of this is: Korea EXPORTS to China contracting.
How bad u ask? Well, -19%YoY. The slowdown of China is very bad news for Korea as China is Korea's #1 export market👈🏻
How bad u ask? Well, -19%YoY. The slowdown of China is very bad news for Korea as China is Korea's #1 export market👈🏻
Thailand'll report June exports (Korea is the 1st in Asia for July), but if u look at my recap of Asian trade, DO NOT EXPECT GOOD NEWS out of Thailand. It is not an outlier of regional trade even if gaining some from China arbitrage of tariff. And the strong Baht REER not helpful
@Trinhnomics will be on @business tom at 840am HKT to discuss everything! Just kidding, will focus on Asia outlook (risks & opportunities); Southeast Asia data & Philippines growth, Korea lack of exports, US-China trade war impact (winners/losers), Korea/Japan tensions. Yep,🤗👩🏻💼
#BREAKING Breaking: China to levy anti-dumping duties on EU, Japan steel products.
Look, if China is using the current account as a 1st line of defense, who will make up for the shortfall of Chinese demand? 🤔
Look, if China is using the current account as a 1st line of defense, who will make up for the shortfall of Chinese demand? 🤔
