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France 🇫🇷 July manufacturing PMI declined to 50 from 51.9 and so the EUR/USD fell immediate after. Services were shaken too, decelerating to 52.2 from 52.9 😬
My guess is that the decline of Chinese imports (remember my rant on China sheltering its economy using the current account as a first line of defense?) is showing up in France's stagnant new export business 👇🏻 
While we wait for German manufacturing (or lack of it), let's look at what happens when China uses its current account as a 1st line of defense?
a) Chinese imports decline (by -4% ytd in H1)
b) Countries that depend on Chinese imports see fewer orders! 😬
a) Chinese imports decline (by -4% ytd in H1)
b) Countries that depend on Chinese imports see fewer orders! 😬
German manufacturing PMI DROPPED 43.1 to from 45.0 and services to 55.4 from 55.8 🥶
Economic ranking by country:
#1 USA - Decelerating but still robust
#2 China - Defo slowing but stabilized but no help for RoW as imports contract
#3 Germany - DROPPING
#4 UK - Yep, slowing & slower if hard Brexit
#6 France - Slowing
WHERE IS THE GROWTH? Don't worry, we got NIRP
#1 USA - Decelerating but still robust
#2 China - Defo slowing but stabilized but no help for RoW as imports contract
#3 Germany - DROPPING
#4 UK - Yep, slowing & slower if hard Brexit
#6 France - Slowing
WHERE IS THE GROWTH? Don't worry, we got NIRP
Waiting for Eurozone manu PMI to come out in 20 mins to refresh my where are we chart & very high chance that the whole EUR region is going into contraction w/ Germany dropping like a stone.
Remember what I said about the USD - the US is slowing but still relatively stronger.
Remember what I said about the USD - the US is slowing but still relatively stronger.
Germany is like the Korea of Europe - it is a huge industrial power house & very much linked to China & #Chinaslowing is hurting it really really hard, esp autos. Remember what I always say - do not look at just the headline b/c ur exposure to the details are different. Not good.
It is too bad bloomberg never published my interview but if u have a terminal u can watch it by typing my name & it's there. I emphasized this pt:
China slowing is not benign - it is consequential even if it seems stable b/c CHINA IS SHELTERING ITSELF THROUGH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT!
China slowing is not benign - it is consequential even if it seems stable b/c CHINA IS SHELTERING ITSELF THROUGH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT!
Euro Area manufacturing falls to 46.4 from 47.6 worse than expectations of 47.7 🥶
NIRP! NIRP! NIRP! Life deeper below zero here we goooooooo 🌊🌊🌊💰💰💰
NIRP! NIRP! NIRP! Life deeper below zero here we goooooooo 🌊🌊🌊💰💰💰
Question: Where are we?
Answer: WE ARE HERE 🥶👇🏻 - synchronization of global slowdown.
Yes, second half recovery is elusive & although the US is slowing, it is relatively better so the USD is still STRONGER despite the Fed potentially cutting.
Answer: WE ARE HERE 🥶👇🏻 - synchronization of global slowdown.
Yes, second half recovery is elusive & although the US is slowing, it is relatively better so the USD is still STRONGER despite the Fed potentially cutting.
Speaking of autos doing badly (Germany PMI falling off the cliff), Nissan said: Report of 90% Q1 operating profit plunge 'broadly accurate' 🥶
-90% (yes, -90%)
RIP global manufacturing 🙇🏻♀️, well, the silver lining is that Q1 2020 has a very favorable base 🤗
-90% (yes, -90%)
RIP global manufacturing 🙇🏻♀️, well, the silver lining is that Q1 2020 has a very favorable base 🤗
