Thread by @AMTabaqchali

My review on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for July: The IMF revised its real GDP, non-oil GDP growth rates for the crisis yeas 2014-2017 & post conflict 2018-2021.

iraq-businessnews.com/2019/08/11/mar…

The crisis years were, on the whole, weaker than initially expected.

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While, 2018, the 1st year following the conflict, was the 2nd year of a deep recession with a contraction of -0.6% on the back of the prior year’s -2.5% decline, instead of being a 1st year of an economic recovery, at +2.9%, following a shallower decline of -0.4%.

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On the other hand, the expected recovery in 2019/2020 would be much stronger than est.’d earlier with GDP growing at +4.6%/+5.3% instead of +1.7%/+2.0%.

For non-oil GDP, the sharp decline of 2015 was much steeper at −14.4% than earlier est.’s of −9.6%, while ...

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... the stability expected for 2017 was, instead, a double dip recession. The bounce in 2018 was much more anaemic up +0.8% instead of an increase of +2.0%, confirming the earlier message that 2018 was the 2nd year in a contraction with the ...

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... non-oil GDP dragging the overall GDP down, negating the strong contributions of higher oil prices & exports to the overall GDP growth. Plus, the contraction, in non-oil GDP, lasted longer at 4 years than earlier expectations of 3 years.

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But, the expected recovery for 2019/2020 is estimated to be much stronger at +5.4%/+5.0% versus earlier west.'s of +3.0%/+3.9%. This time it pulls, the overall GDP, upwards with it.

These changes are consistent with the analysis, made here over the last few months, ...

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... on the drag on the economy in 2018 and early 2019 as a result of the political paralysis before, during, & after the May 2018 parliamentary elections. A paralysis that ended in March as the 2019 budget was passed into law in late February 2019.

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