Thread by @TankerTrackers

And so it begins.

New AIS update: Iranian flag.

The vessel is now signaling that it is underway. There's less than a nautical mile to go before crossing the EU/Gibraltar maritime border. #GRACE1 #AdrianDarya1 #OOTT

Bearing now corrected. Heading south.

At the risk of tweeting too soon, it seems that she's backtracking in the same direction she came from.

HANG ON!

No real movement right now.

Inching slowly now towards the Spanish maritime border. We stated incorrectly previously that this was the EU border. That border is beyond this one.

Now picking up speed. Only half a nautical mile left before reaching Spain's waters.

AIS updates to show she is now underway again, moving at 3.6 knots/hour towards the Gibraltar-Spain border.

BREAKING: ADRIAN DARYA I, the Iranian VLCC supertanker fully laden with 2.1 million barrels of Iranian light crude oil and formerly known as the Panamanian-flagged GRACE 1, has now departed UK/Gibraltar waters for Spanish waters.

From this point, there's around 9 nautical miles left to go before reaching international waters.

The vessel has now changed its course slightly in order to reach international waters at soonest. Should reach it in an hour at this pace, however she is moving at about 2/3rd the speed she held during her voyage to the Mediterranean Sea from Iran.

We're going to call it a night for now and check back again in a few hours. The vessel has shifted its course again back to 62 degrees. Thank you for tuning in! Good night!

Good morning!

As of 4 hours ago, the ADRIAN DARYA 1 has been heading east to KALAMATA, GREECE. That is her destination for the time being. #OOTT

According to an article published 4 days ago by the New York Times... #OOTT

nytimes.com/2019/08/15/wor…

We were interviewed this morning by @BBCWorld about this vessel. Please forward to 06:10. Thanks! #OOTT

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1…

@BBCWorld The tanker's AIS is now saying that it'll arrive in Kalamata on August 26th. Our analysis is that she'll be avoiding EU waters and not even enter Greece, but most likely offload a million barrels onto an empty Iranian-flagged Suezmax in order to continue back to Iran via Suez.

@BBCWorld As said, this fully-laden Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) supertanker is too heavily laden in the water for the Suez Canal. She is 58.04 meters wide, which means she can only be 17.32m deep in the water, but is 22.1m deep right now. Needs to offload in order to use the Suez Canal

@BBCWorld In terms of available capacity in the region, Iran has a single Iranian-flagged Suezmax which was laid up for repairs last month in Pendik, Turkey. Her name is TOUR 2, and was beached off the coast of Latakia (in mid-January) for months on account of a storm. Might be an option.

Our response to a press FAQ: “Was GRACE 1 due to deliver to Syria?”

Our analysis is she was NOT. Syria’s lifeline from Iran is via the Suez Canal. Over the past year, 17 million barrels arrived this way, 4 million of which during the 6 weeks she was detained in Gibraltar. #OOTT

2nd FAQ we keep getting: “Where was the GRACE 1 due to deliver?”

Our analysis is she was due to perform STS (Ship-to-Ship) oil transfers within Syria’s (safe haven) waters towards clients within the Med Sea, most likely small amounts over a long period of time. Likely Europe.

To support this analysis, we’ll state the following:

- Syria acquired two smaller vessels (1 million and 350K barrel capacity respectively) a month ahead of her arrival.

- The offshore delivery point (SBM) in Baniyas is too shallow for GRACE 1.

- Suez is STILL the supply route

We're adding our 16 min Periscope video on this topic to this megathread.

pscp.tv/w/1vAxRWQXvbyK…

And here is our @BBCWorld Outside Source TV interview about the #Grace1 #AdrianDarya1. #OOTT

dropbox.com/s/ptv9abehcfu8…

@BBCWorld And here is our original article on the GRACE 1 as published on December 1st, 2018.

tankertrackers.com/news/discoveri…

For those of you asking why the vessel has been offline for 24 hours: She hasn’t. She’s only out of VHF range, but we use Satellite AIS and have an update from 26 minutes ago. She’ll only be MIA when we say so. Till then, assume continued course. Thanks.

UPDATE: The #AdrianDarya1 has traveled some 600 nautical miles (1,111km / 690 miles) since departing Gibraltar 3.5 days ago. There's still about 750 more nautical miles before reaching the international waters outside Greece.

BREAKING: The #AdrianDarya1 has now reached a fork in the road! From here, she can either sail back into EU waters in order to pass through the Strait of Messina between Sicily and mainland Italy, or sail around Sicily in order to reach the international waters outside Greece.

SHE JUST TURNED SOUTHEAST - avoiding EU waters.

Good morning! Overnight, the #AdrianDarya1 changed her destination to Mersin, Turkey. That’s right: Kalamata, Greece is now off the table. Her ETA is August 31st. The port in Mersin doesn’t look deep enough, so she will likely anchor outside. Remember, TOUR 2 is in Turkey as well

Please note that the forecasted route will most likely not be applicable due to Greece being an EU nation. They will likely sail around Greece instead. Thank you.

Again, we would like to remind journalists that our analysis remains unchanged: The vessel will not deliver its oil cargo to Turkey. We believe she will rendezvous with an empty Iranian tanker and deliver 700K-1 million barrels before heading for the Suez Canal. Thanks

As for the current oil deliveries to Syria and available Iranian tanker capacity in the region, we shared our findings recently with our monthly/annual Premium subscribers:

https://twitter.com/tankertrackers/status/1164184025994596352?s=21

UPDATE: Now that the proverbial can has been kicked down the road by several more days, we have updated our Syria article above as circumstances have changed only slightly.

tankertrackers.com/news/news/brea…

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A new route has been recalculated by @MarineTraffic. Available within the mobile app for iOS and Android.

Destination Mersin is no more. “For Order” tends to mean just about anywhere until they receive new orders. We’re not answering phone calls about this new update today. Thanks

A quick check on voyage trajectory indicates she is heading towards the Suez Canal. We see Iranian flags nearing the area over the coming days. One is full (en route to Syria), other is empty. Again, just a possibility now that there is no publicly advertised destination.

We see an Iranian Suezmax (1 million barrels aboard) rushing north up the Red Sea after halting yesterday before new instructions came through today. This vessel is carrying crude oil to Syria. Once she has delivered, she would be the best candidate to help take on oil from AD1.

Mathematically speaking, AD1 should be able to traverse the Suez Canal with 1.35 out of 2.1 million barrels. We believe she will offload anywhere between 750K-1M barrels to this other vessel. Question is what the other vessel will do thereafter. We’re watching all vessels there.

Given how her other sister vessels are moving (halting/rushing), it indicates that new orders are being issued daily as to what to do next. Much of that is on account of chng in circumstances (few days ago) due to the brkdown of a partially-laden VLCC in the Red Sea called HELM.

Reuters: Iran says it has sold oil from tanker released by Gibraltar

(We do not believe this to be the case because no buyer would want to touch this vessel right now. It is as good as radioactive. There are other vessels delivering in a cloaked manner.)

reuters.com/article/us-mid…

The red line within the yellow dotted line represents the past 36 hours. The continue red line represents up to 72 hours of continued trajectory, indicating the Port Said anchorage. We believe she will sit idle there for a few days until an Iranian Suezmax meets up with her.

Once the STS transfer has been completed and the AD1 continues southbound via the Suez, there is an increased likelihood that the IRGC may release the UK-flagged & Swedish-owned STENA IMPERO. An empty Aframax (max 730K barrels) is already sailing back to Iran from Syria: ARGO.

Good morning! We now see a sudden course change to 80 degrees. #AdrianDarya1’s destination remains undefined. Must be new orders for the day.

Given that the other vessel which AD1 might meet is currently fully laden with oil, it has still not arrived in Syria for delivery. Therefore, an eventual partial oil cargo transfer from the AD1 is still (most likely) a week away.

BREAKING NEWS out of Syria (2019-08-28) #OOTT

Apparently, this now has to do with Iran, Syria AND Turkey.

tankertrackers.com/news/news/brea…

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After quite an eventful day in the east Med Sea (covered in our story above), the #AdrianDarya1 is about to conclude her 10th day on her continued voyage from Gibraltar. Direction changed again and it seems like she's facing Mersin, Turkey; where we saw something else happen.

@MarineTraffic In the past hour, the #AdrianDarya1 has changed her course to 267 degrees, as if facing Greece, which is EU territory. In any case, if she is due to transit the Suez Canal, she will have to offload up to 1M barrels onto a different vessel. There are now four candidates nearby.

@MarineTraffic Now aimlessly moseying around the Med, the AD1 is now pointing south. Based on what we can see, she's arrived ahead of schedule given that her best potential counterpart (Iranian flag) still needs to deliver oil to Syria before lifting oil from the AD1. A few more days to go.

The #AdrianDarya1 has now changed its destination to the (Bay of) Iskenderun, Turkey. At this point, it doesn’t mean anything. Consider this just a record update rather than anything substantial. We believe a transfer is still a few days away. Turkey will not import this oil.

Just killing time. They might as well just stop moving and save some fuel.

Impressive.

Press Release by .@USTreasury #OOTT

Treasury Targets Oil Tanker Adrian Darya 1 and its Captain

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

@USTreasury And if the vessel does end up delivering oil to the East Med's deepest port (Tartous, Syria) then that will most likely create a diplomatic rift of mistrust between EU & Iran. Currently, there's enough oil swarming towards Syria as it is. 3M barrels.

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1167576352473702401?s=20

@USTreasury Vessels currently in Syria:

SAVIOR arrived with 1M barrels. Laden with Iranian oil since April.

JASMINE & SANDRO. Latter is recently acquired by Syria and assists Iranian vessels post-sabotage.

Approaching Syria:

SILVIA I; STARK I and SARAK. Each laden with 1M barrels.

#OOTT

Given how much oil is currently en route to Syria (as well as immediately available) and is expected to arrive over the coming days, we still do not believe there is a need for AD1 to deliver to Syria. Iran never sends oil to Syria all the way around Africa. 12-14 days via Suez.

One comment about the SAVIOR (Comoros-flagged Suezmax tanker): She seems to be a contingency plan in case the Iranian national fleet (NITC) doesn’t arrive. As of yesterday, she hasn’t discharged her oil in Baniyas. August imports were very low so far. She’s there as backup.

SAVIOR spent two months in the anchorage of Mersin, Turkey before suddenly departing it on August 27th. Her AIS was switched on briefly in Baniyas the following day for just half an hour. Not the most impressive effort to hide. Was confirmed by satellite imagery the same day.

BREAKING: @planetlabs satellite imagery captured this morning (Aug 31st, 2019) shows that Iran-flagged Suezmax SILVIA I has begun its delivery of oil to the Baniyas refinery whereas the Comoros-flagged Suezmax SAVIOR still hasn't as there are still 2 more Suezmaxes inbound. #OOTT

We see several possibilities going forth given that all three (SILVIA I, STARK I and SARAK) wave Iranian flags, is that either the 1st one (SILVIA I) will complete her delivery to Baniyas and then rendezvous with #AdrianDarya1 for an STS, or that they wait for last one; SARAK.

And just as we tweeted that out, AD1 changed her destination yet again to “FOR ORDER”. We believe it will be Syria’s waters for STS offloading in order to sail back to Iran via the Suez Canal. #OOTT

Please note that the map above shows the latest AIS positions even though only 1 of the 6 vessels (AD1) is still transmitting its location. All have relocated. STARK I should reach Syria tomorrow. If not Baniyas, then there’s Tartous, which has a pipeline to the Homs refinery.

In response to @SecPompeo’s tweet yesterday:

https://twitter.com/jzarif/status/1167816108092600320?s=21

[Insert Benny Hill theme tune] 🎶

We interrupt our usual programming with this special announcement:

We'll be reporting & blocking Twitter accounts we suspect are misusing/misconstruing our research for the purpose of perpetuating lies, especially of political nature.

We are documenting a historic event.

Thx

With only 29 nautical miles left to reach Syria's waters, the AD1 could meet up with the Iranian-flagged SILVIA I in a day or two. We believe the SBM pipeline in Baniyas may be repaired, otherwise she wouldn't have used it. SILVIA I is the first best STS candidate right now.

The ARGO 1 delivered 700K barrels of crude oil a few days ago to Baniyas and then headed back home via the Suez. What's rare though is that she's now broadcasting Kharg Island, Iran as her destination. We haven't seen that in a while across the fleet. Possible change of protocol.

As happy customers, we're going to shamelessly promote our favorite maritime data source @MarineTraffic for their exceptional AIS coverage. With a global network of 4,339 VHF-based listening stations, y'all can track AD1 in real-time!

marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/zo…

@MarineTraffic Some of you have asked if AD1 has enough fuel given that she sailed all the way around Africa. Great question. We looked into the AIS records and saw that she met with a bunkering vessel in Gibraltar on July 31st for 2h.

400 tonnes isn't much though; ~4 days worth at full speed

Good morning, everyone. The AD1 has now stopped in international waters between Baniyas, Syria and Cyprus.

BREAKING: #AdrianDarya1 is now reporting that she will reach her destination in two days time, on September 3rd, 2019 at 06:00 UTC. The proverbial can got kicked further down the road. Seems like they’re going to wait for STARK I to complete delivery to Syria as well. #OOTT

Satellite image captured by @esa this morning of the #AdrianDarya1. She is shown here sailing south between Cyprus and Syria. You can also see by her wake that she is moving very slowly.

AD1 has 3 potential Iranian-flagged Suezmax tankers to transfer up to a million barrels of oil to.

1) SILVIA I (no visual confirmation if delivery to Baniyas was completed today)

2) STARK I (should be in Syria by now with 1MB aboard)

3) SARAK (will enter Suez soon with 1MB)

Happy Fortnight Threadversary!

Our Live thread of the #AdrianDarya1 is now 2wks old!

We are doing this so that journalists & fellow researchers will have an accurate account of events thanks to the data. Also, to avoid repeating ourselves to the press.

Our answer: See thread.

Good morning, everyone! The #AdrianDarya1 has stopped just 45 nautical miles (83km/52 miles) west of Tripoli, Lebanon in international waters. Dear Lebanese journalists, please chill. Thank you.

She’s moving back north again. Let’s see if tomorrow will be the big day as previously hinted over the weekend. We are still waiting for a visual confirmation. Thanks.

The #AdrianDarya1 has now gone presumably dark off the AIS grid as signals aren't arriving via terrestrial VHF listening stations or via Satellite-AIS. She's been offline for over 100 minutes. We'll wait and see because this sort of thing happens at times. No rumors, thanks.

@MarineTraffic Since Aug 2019, Syria received Iranian crude oil from:

- ARGO 1 (700K)
- SAVIOR (1M, but hasn't delivered to refinery)
- SILVIA I (1M sighted delivery on Aug 31)
- STARK I (1M, awaiting visual)
- SARAK (1M, just exited Suez for Syria)

Aug 2018 thru July 2019= 17M barrels #OOTT

@MarineTraffic FACTS

- EVERY SINGLE ONE of these vessels used the Suez Canal to reach Syria from Iran.

- Iran has no need to ship all the way around Africa to reach Syria. Complete waste of time.

- Egypt does NOT block Iranian flags in the Suez Canal due to 1888 Convention of Constantinople.

Good morning, everyone. It’s been over 12 hours since #AdrianDarya1 was last transmitting her position. It is now safe to assume she is in Syria’s territorial waters. We’ll hopefully be able to spot her during the day in satellite imagery. Thanks. #OOTT

Currently situated just north of Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, the 1M barrel laden SARAK has just informed us that she is awaiting orders. Iranian vessels never park here, however Syria is busy right now. SARAK’s crew can definitely catch morning cartoons from Israel for breakfast.

BREAKING: We just spotted the SANDRO yesterday in international waters. This is NOT an Iranian vessel, but is registered under a front company in Beirut on behalf of other entities in Syria. Satellite image captured by @planetlabs #OOTT

Coordinates: 35.25° N, 35.63° E

@planetlabs We now have some satellite imagery, captured this morning by the @esa. Sorry for not labeling, but here's what we can identify.

Left: SILVIA I is about to depart empty. STARK I is in the middle. SAVIOR is at the bottom. Both are full.

Right: SANDRO is sailing southeast. #OOTT

@planetlabs @esa We are still reviewing the imagery to locate the #AdrianDarya1, however the clouds are fairly spotty and we're running through all the filters at the moment.

Brb.

@planetlabs @esa We hereby visually recognize and confirm the #AdrianDarya1, located 70km west of Tartous, Syria, in international waters. Kudos as well to @RelicHq for spotting her!

And no, no transfer of oil just yet. It takes time.

#OOTT

CORRECTION for SANDRO: Sailing SOUTHWEST, not Southeast.

And here is a general overview of all the Suezmax tankers (yes, they all begin with the letter “S”) and the #AdrianDarya1. #Syria #Iran #OOTT

Good morning, crew! SARAK will be joining her sister ships in Syria most likely tomorrow as she departed the Sinai region last night and has been offline 4 hours ago. We take that as an indication that SILVIA I has definitely concluded her delivery to Baniyas. #OOTT

UPDATE: SARAK is now saying she's going to the Bay of Iskenderun, Turkey. This is just north of Syria. FYI, the AD1 said the same but never went there. Her reported ETA is 6 days from now, but it only takes another day to reach it.

Taking the inconspicuous scenic route around Cyprus.

An update on the STENA IMPERO (UK-flagged & Swedish-owned Handymax) tanker currently being held off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran:

We are also cited here together with @planetlabs.

ft.com/content/65ffe2…

@planetlabs Imagery captured by @planetlabs is now streaming in, and we can see that the SILVIA I has left the scene after (what seems to be) a successful delivery to the SBM in Baniyas. The STARK I was now taken her place while the SAVIOR is still laying fully-laden in anchorage. #OOTT

@planetlabs Update by @USTreasury:

https://twitter.com/USTreasury/status/1169264389125488640?s=20

@planetlabs @USTreasury Fresh list of tankers that have just been added to the @USTreasury sanctions list. #OOTT

treasury.gov/resource-cente…

Statement by Iran’s ambassador in the UK:

https://twitter.com/baeidinejad/status/1169281408021487616?s=21

Statement by Sweden’s Foreign Minister @margotwallstrom. For sake of context, the STENA IMPERO (currently seized by the IRGC) is owned by a Swedish company @stenabulk even though it is registered with a UK Flag of Convenience.

https://twitter.com/margotwallstrom/status/1169317671470587904?s=21

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk We believe we've spotted the #AdrianDarya1 today in @esa's Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, approximately 57 nautical miles (~106km/66mi) west of the SBM in Baniyas. True color imagery wasn't available in that area, and @marinetraffic showed nothing broadcasting over AIS.

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk @esa @MarineTraffic And yes, we measured the object, and it appears to fit the bill. We'll hopefully have true color tomorrow. Stay tuned.

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk @esa @MarineTraffic BREAKING: The SILVIA I is now about to re-enter the Suez Canal to head back to Iran. Her AIS transponder was switched back on just recently, but her load condition hasn't been updated to show that she's empty. Given her presence here, she would not have had enough time for STS.

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk @esa @MarineTraffic This means that next in line are STARK I and SARAK. There could be a chance as well that SAVIOR (Comoros-flagged Suezmax) might be part of the imminent delivery project, but we feel that she's going to sit tight for now and only be used when there's a dire need for more oil.

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk @esa @MarineTraffic SARAK is now north or Cyprus in international waters, while announcing Iskenderun, Turkey as her destination. We do not believe she will enter TR, plus she has also landed on the US sanctions list. AD1 previously reported Iskenderun, but never went there. More wasted fuel.

@margotwallstrom @stenabulk @esa @MarineTraffic Good day! Here's our status report. Today's image.

- SANDRO & JASMINE are empty and act as local support for STS in Syria. STARK I is discharging. SAVIOR is fully laden & anchored.

- SILVIA I is idle & empty off Port Said, Egypt.

- SARAK went dark 5 hours ago off N. Cyprus.

Info-graphic map of yesterday's new sanctions listings by the @USTreasury

No mention of Tartous port as stated by @SecPompeo

Good (Friday) morning! The empty Iranian Suezmax tanker SILVIA I is now returning home via the Suez Canal after successfully delivering 1M barrels to Baniyas, Syria. Yesterday was cloudy, and even though true color imagery wasn’t available, we were able to recognize via SAR.

According to this exclusive article tweeted out by its author, two unnamed sources state that the #AdrianDarya1 unloaded 55% of her cargo by 10:15pm last night to a port in #Syria. We have no visual confirmation today, but shall keep you posted. #OOTT

https://twitter.com/simonbhooper/status/1169960605131923456

Would have been nice if at least a port was named, given that both sources lack names.

UPDATE: First glimpse of Syria's deepwater oil terminal in Tartous is showing nothing at either SBM/MBM input/output points. Patchy clouds up north in Baniyas. No sign of AD1 just yet. Stay tuned.

Image captured by @planetlabs

Here's SAVIOR btw. She's STILL in the anchorage of Baniyas, away from the SBM's. Hasn't moved since arriving here days ago.

EPILEPTIC WARNING (WITH APOLOGIES):

What you're looking is a rapid animation of just two frames. The first clear frame is that of AD1 in Gibraltar on Aug 10, 2019 while the other is yesterday (Sept 5), mostly hidden under a cloud with exception to bridge. Just off Tartous port.

Coordinates from that image captured yesterday on September 5th, 2019 are 34.91° N, 35.82° E

Direct url: zoom.earth/#view=34.91000…

Oh btw, the SILVIA I has traversed the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea. Heading back home to Iran soon.

And now this: Seems like Tartous anchorage is confirmed.

https://twitter.com/ambjohnbolton/status/1170122034577321984?s=21

Additional true color image captured by @Maxar shows the AD1. From what we can tell, the vessel is still fully laden with oil cargo in this shot.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1170255584911921152?s=21

We can also see that yesterday’s hi-res shot was captured in the morning, and not afternoon. In addition, a reference shot on the far right shows the bottom half of a hull (red) when a vessel is slightly higher above water due to less/no cargo. She was still laden in that case.

The reason we illustrate all this is because according to .@MiddleEastEye , the AD1 delivered 55% of her cargo to a port in Syria two nights ago. No mention of which port, and they based their article on two unnamed sources. Sketchy at best.

@MiddleEastEye BREAKING: FRESH images from Syria today via @planetlabs RapidEye.

Left: #AdrianDarya1 is still in anchorage of Tartous, and not near oil terminal further north.

Middle: STARK I has left Baniyas after a successful delivery at SBM.

Right: SAVIOR and now SARAK, both fully laden.

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs This unedited photo shows that the AD1 has a thin shadow along her starboard (right) side. As we've pointed out previously, this means that she's still fully laden and heavy in the water.

Trust the data. Trust the imagery. Question unnamed sources.

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS:

- AD1 does STS with SANDRO: 1M barrels remain in Syria
- AD1 does STS with SARAK: Both depart for Iran
- AD1 awaits for 2 STS's in order to sail empty to Iran
- AD1 delivers to Tartous oil terminal further north

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs Tune in to our @bbcworldservice radio interview, recorded a few hours ago. It begins at 9 minutes in:

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1…

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs @bbcworldservice If #AdrianDarya1 wanted to deliver oil straight to Tartous, all they'd have to do is sail about 3 nautical miles NNE from the red X to the yellow circled area where another Iranian vessel delivered oil on July 4th; same date the AD1 (previously GRACE 1) was arrested in Gibraltar.

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs @bbcworldservice Since early August of last year (2018), we have counted 21.6M barrels of Iranian crude oil reach Syria; 55Kbpd. Of that amount, 7.5 million arrived since #AdrianDarya1 was arrested on July 4th, 2019 in Gibraltar. However, 1.9 million are still floating in Baniyas, undelivered.

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs @bbcworldservice Kindly note that the numbers above EXCLUDE the #AdrianDarya1.

@MiddleEastEye @planetlabs @bbcworldservice CORRECTION: Tartous is NOT able to accomodate a VLCC supertanker either, just like Baniyas. Our previous port information was incorrect. The maximum permitted depth at those two SBM's is 16 meters. AD1 is over 22m deep. They will need to STS no matter what. h/t @potifar66 (thx!)

OUR 3 WEEK SUMMARY

#AdrianDarya1 sailed into Syrian waters and anchored off the Russian navy terminal in Tartous.

Has not discharged any oil from what we can see.

Iranian flags present: SARAK (1MB; anchored in Baniyas), JASMINE (empty Handymax)

Awaiting STARK I to reach Suez

Tweeted too soon. STARK I now reporting empty north of Port Said. Will traverse the Suez Canal back towards Iran.

UPDATE: Here's today's satellite imagery, captured by @planetlabs once again. We were very fortunate with the clouds.

Status is still quo. No discharge by AD1 or the other two in Baniyas. The SBM's in both Baniyas and Tartous are vacant as well. No deliveries. #OOTT

BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on domestic TV that the AD1 has reached her destination and that the oil has been sold. Please note on August 26th, 2019 they also said it was sold while she was in Gibraltar. Buyer was unnamed.

https://twitter.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/1170693575660711936

According to our translator, the FM spokesperson also said (in reference to the) the .@stenabulk STENA IMPERO that "the English tanker in on its way to being released" given that the AD1 has reached her destination. Didn't specify destination or Syria, only "Med Sea shore".

And now a (re-issued) tweet by Iran’s ambassador to the UK, .@baeidinejad:

https://twitter.com/baeidinejad/status/1170753306337193984?s=21

Remember SILVIA I? Well, we were wondering if she was going to do this, but it seems as if she MIGHT rendezvous with HELM to pick up most of her oil cargo. HELM is a VLCC that broke down in the middle of the Red Sea en route to the Suez with 1.3M barrels aboard. #NeverADullMoment

Iran’s state English media outlet .@PressTV says that the #AdrianDarya1 “has discharged its oil cargo and is now berthing at a Medit. port”.

Except she hasn’t.

It takes at least 24h to discharge 2MB of light crude oil, and Syria has no port deep enough for her to berth at.

Good morning!

This bit of “information” was brought to us. It is incorrect. There are no hoses visible as this is not even a delivery point. Shadow thickness hasn’t changed. Also, 2.1 million barrels doesn’t last 3 months. They need over 100K a day. Thx.

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1170021295989428226?s=21

Elsewhere, we can see that the STARK I entered the Suez Canal two hours ago in order to sail back to Iran. Further down in the Red Sea some 36 nautical miles off the Saudi maritime border, we see that SILVIA I has a tugboat next to her. Short distance away from HELM. Interesting.

As for the #StenaImpero, we're confident that we have located her once again in the anchorage of Bandar Abbas. This @planetlabs image captured on Sept 5th, 2019 shows a 90m long supply vessel along her side. Possibly preparing for the release they announced. Both had AIS off.

Here's also an update from Baniyas this morning (Sept 9th, 2019) via satellite imagery captured by @planetlabs. It shows that SAVIOR (Comoros flag) and SARAK (Iran flag) are still fully laden and anchored away from the SBM delivery points further north. Awaiting Tartous imagery.

@planetlabs BREAKING: Hi-res SkySat imagery captured by @planetlabs today shows a shadow angle that allowed us to calculate that the vessel is still fully laden in the water. As opposed to Iran's FM statements yesterday, NO OIL HAS BEEN DISCHARGED by the #AdrianDarya1 as of yet. #OOTT

@planetlabs Comment: Given that we know the exact location of the vessel and time the imagery is captured, we are able to calculate by shadow length if it is fully laden, partially laden or empty. #OOTT

'Controversy Over Iranian Tanker's Cargo Continues' scl.io/rVUAcyb via @Mar_Ex

@planetlabs @Mar_Ex Good day, everyone! True color imagery hasn't arrived, but we have closely reviewed the Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery collected just now by @esa and see that the vessels are in the same positions as previously. Status is still quo. No STS of oil from AD1 just yet.

@planetlabs @Mar_Ex @esa As mentioned previously several tweets north of here, we see several possibilities here:

As Baniyas and Tartous are too shallow for direct delivery, the AD1 would have to STS with SANDRO (Syrian property), but if AD1 does STS with SARAK (once emptied), then both sail to Iran.

Confirmed just now via @planetlabs true color satellite imagery: The #AdrianDarya1 is still fully laden with oil. No delivery/discharge whatsoever. It'll take an STS with a Suezmax to do so, and there's nothing vacant within immediate proximity other than SANDRO further north.

As for our tweet yesterday regarding the HELM and SILVIA I in the Red Sea, there was no STS. SILVIA I is continuing on empty back to Iran. They were both attended to by BALTIC PEARL (offshore supply vessel). Just stating that for the record so we don't have any loose ends. Thx.

BREAKING: For geopolitical context, we’re now adding this to the thread’s timeline.

UPDATED: We have just reviewed today's @esa SAR data of the entire Syrian coastline, and status is still unchanged since yesterday. SARAK and SAVIOR are not at their delivery points north of Baniyas, and the #AdrianDarya1 is still sitting alone in the anchorage of Tartous. #OOTT

While the top diplomats of UK and Iran are hashing out their positions on the #AdrianDarya1, the Iranians say that they have sold and delivered the oil to somewhere in the Med Sea while the UK says it was delivered to Syria. Meanwhile, yest. imagery showed 2 fully laden vessels.

A VLCC supertanker can rise 10-12 meters higher above sea level when emptied of 2MB of oil cargo and still holding seawater as ballast to prevent it from losing balance. For each meter gained in height, the shadow will cast an additional 2.2 meters in depth. You'd notice that.

Some folks doubt us so we feel the need to further visualize the difference between a fully laden VLCC and an empty one.

The one on the left is fully laden with 2 million barrels. The one on the right is empty. Once empty, it lifts by a dozen meters and casts a bigger shadow. 👍

Yesterday's tweet by the Chief Minister of Gibraltar. The 5th paragraph says a lot. We have to look at credibility outside this tanker situation: the JCPOA nuclear agreement.

https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1171476439889133571?s=20

BREAKING: The Iranian-flagged Suezmax tanker SARAK was sighted today (Sept 12th, 2019) at the SBM delivery point in Baniyas. She will deliver 1M barrels. After that, we'll see whether or not she does an STS with AD1 to offload half of her cargo in order to proceed with next step.

What's very interesting about this is the fact that SAVIOR (which doesn't even belong to Iran) still hasn't discharged her oil to Baniyas. It seems like SARAK needs to complete the delivery ASAP, then pick up oil from AD1. After that, we just might see the release of STENA IMPERO

We’re adding this to the thread for sake of timeline. Thanks.

Here are the Iranian crude oil deliveries to Syria that haven't even been mentioned by UK or USA since AD1's arrest on July 4th, 2019:

SILVIA I (1MB)
SABITI (1MB)
SINOPA (1MB)
ARGO 1 (700K)
SILVIA I (1MB yes, a 2nd time)
SAVIOR (1MB, not discharged yet)
STARK I (1MB)
SARAK (1MB)

SARAK was on her second day of discharge at the Baniyas SBM, which is now the new norm. We notice that her shadow has thickened, indicating that she's emptied out most of her oil cargo. The engines are on (see smoke) and might be about to leave. Her next move will be interesting.

@planetlabs Meanwhile, SAVIOR was still in position at the anchorage outside Baniyas while the ADRIAN DARYA-1 was still fully laden in the anchorage of the commercial & naval port of Tartous. Still not at either of two offshore SBM delivery points located north of that. #OOTT

@planetlabs BREAKING: As we await on imagery to arrive for the other vessels in the area such as SARAK, SAVIOR and AD1, we see that SANDRO (Syrian-owned via Lebanon; Togo-flagged) Suezmax seems to be FULLY LADEN. Yesterday we didn't have a clear shot of AD1 via @planetlabs due to a cloud.

@planetlabs SARAK (Iranian-flagged Suezmax) has now re-appeared on AIS leaving Syria, as shown here on @MarineTraffic after being offline for 9 days. She discharged her cargo of a 1M barrels to the SBM in Baniyas. Should be empty. We're now just waiting on imagery of her, AD1 and SAVIOR.

An update on the STENA IMPERO. We last saw her yesterday at 27.07° N, 56.25° E, however Iran's FM spox said that a few formalities need to be finished before releasing her. She's been held for 59 days wheres ADRIAN DARYA-1 was held for 45 days.

en.mehrnews.com/news/150103/Ir…

BREAKING:

The #AdrianDarya1 is STILL FULLY LADEN! A @planetlabs hi-res SkySat tilted angle satellite image shows that she's deep in the water. Shadows & time of day confirm it as well. Also compare height of side ladder with photo captured in Gibraltar. Right pic: ladder example

Staircase*, not ladder. Sorry about that. Then again, it would have to depend on the angle of inclination, of course. 🤓

UPDATE: The #AdrianDarya1 is still present in the anchorage of Tartous. SAVIOR is still fully laden in the anchorage of Baniyas. SANDRO and JASMINE are off its coast. #StenaImpero is still in the anchorage of Bandar Abbas, Iran. Her 60th day in detention. #OOTT

We just checked, and all of the vessels we showed you yesterday both in Syria and in Iran were still there today in unchanged condition.

We'll let this tweet thread simmer a while until we see any significant movements.

Thank you,
/TT

As we were asked last night whether or not the #AdrianDarya1 is still full of oil or not, here is yesterday's @planetlabs RapidEye (5m/pixel) constellation imagery which we have converted to b&w without enhancement. Thin shadow indicating she was still full at 11:00am local time.

@planetlabs BREAKING:

We now have further evidence showing that the #AdrianDarya1 is fully laden with oil off the coast of Tartous, Syria. This still image was captured from a Snapchat video shot yesterday. Compare it with an archive shot from Gibraltar. She's the only one there that large.

@planetlabs Here is the video. You can see her 7 seconds in, facing southwest.

We were also able to ascertain the location of where the video was recorded. It took place on the northwest corner of Arwad Island yesterday. Everything checks out from what we can tell.

Correction: The person who recorded the video was standing further south, on the beaten path. See red spot.

Apologies for that.

FAQ: Is AD1 full of seawater?

NO

There wasn’t enough time to discharge 2.1MB to other tankers

No unknown tankers in Syria

Oil would‘ve appeared in Syria’s storage + refineries

Seawater would corrode & contaminate compartments. Iran NEEDS tankers.

Copperfield is not captain!

UPDATE on #StenaImpero. Today (Sept 22, 2019) is 65 days.

https://twitter.com/abasaslani/status/1175807367096803328?s=21

New update on #StenaImpero #OOTT

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1176054526522138624?s=20

And now by the Iranian ambassador to the UK. #OOTT #StenaImpero .@stenabulk

https://twitter.com/baeidinejad/status/1176159588523085825?s=20

We would just like to point out that #StenaImpero was last sighted two days ago in the same position as previously mentioned by us. We do not have anything more recent than that, and are now waiting for them to switch the AIS transponder back on. Busy weekend & long night ahead.

UPDATE on #StenaImpero #OOTT

We have enough data now to show us that the tanker is currently engaged in Ship-to-Ship transfer in order to receive fuel to power the engines ahead of her homebound journey. STS is still in session from what we can see. Stena's AIS is still offline.

UPDATE just now, with photo captured this morning. #StenaImpero

(Sorry, we broke out of the thread earlier)

https://twitter.com/jadehiran/status/1176423695893639168

Adding this orphaned tweet to our giga thread.

https://twitter.com/TankerTrackers/status/1176403355255619585

We've been geolocating her over the past 2 months from every piece of footage we could find. We're confident her anchored location (yellow circle) is where she spent the most of her time. We now believe she's in the orange area, out of today's photo coverage. Pardon the graphics!

BREAKING: The SAVIOR (which has been parked in the anchorage of Baniyas for a few weeks) was sighted today at the SBM delivery point. She's discharging her cargo of a million barrels which were picked up 5 months ago in Iran. She waves the flag of Comoros. marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…

We've kept our eye out on an offline tanker at the Shahid Bahonar port in Bandar Abbas since late July after #StenaImpero was seized, and we couldn't figure her out. This fresh article popped up in our search and the dimensions and features fit. #OOTT al-monitor.com/pulse/original…

BREAKING: We believe we have located the #StenaImpero again. From what we can tell, she had briefly gone inside the port of Rajaei most likely for provisions (there was an article stating they needed fresh water) and today she is back out in the anchorage at 27.05° N, 56.24° E.

BREAKING: @MarineTraffic SAT-AIS just reported 50 minutes ago (2019-09-27 04:49 UTC) that the #StenaImpero is now FINALLY BACK ONLINE at this position! 27.055°, 56.12833°

.@stenabulk #OOTT

UPDATE:

https://twitter.com/Michellewb_/status/1177484235675860992?s=20

The satellite AIS data for #StenaImpero shows that she is now underway.

It seems that she might continue into west into the Gulf waters as she is west of Larak Island. Her original destination was Jubail, Saudi Arabia #OOTT

The #StenaImpero is now heading towards Dubai. .@stenabulk just issued a statement.

BREAKING: The #StenaImpero is now back out in international waters after being held in Iran for 70 days. #OOTT #Iran

@MarineTraffic As the #StenaImpero approaches Dubai, we now learn that Tuesday's meeting at the UN between Sweden's new Foreign Minister @AnnLinde (with PM present) and Iran's President @HassanRouhani were the determining factor for the vessel's release. #OOTT

sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.a…

@MarineTraffic @AnnLinde @HassanRouhani The #StenaImpero has now stopped 12 nautical miles off the coast of Dubai.

In the meantime, here are some photos captured today by the UK Royal Navy .@DefenceHQ

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1177639520705093634?s=20

@MarineTraffic @AnnLinde @HassanRouhani @DefenceHQ UPDATE from Syria on the #AdrianDarya1

Sept 26th, 2019: The AD1 receives a visitor. That small vessel casts a tiny shadow over the AD1. This is yet another sign of that AD1 is still fully laden.

Sept 27: SAVIOR is still discharging in Baniyas. Refinery tanks are slowly filling.

Good morning! The #StenaImpero is now continuing her approach into Dubai port after being anchored last night. We thank you for tuning in to this part of our coverage and wish the crew and their families many good years ahead. We will now shift our focus back to AD1/Syria.

**BIG BREAKING NEWS**

While we wait for true color imagery to confirm it, we now see that the #AdrianDarya1 has sailed north from the Tartous anchorage to the anch of Baniyas! Remember, she will NEED TO STS as she is still too deep in the water to deliver to either port. #OOTT

WE NOW HAVE VISUAL CONFIRMATION

The #AdrianDarya1 is still fully laden and sitting in the anchorage of Baniyas. Again, won't be able to deliver to either Baniyas or Tartous without offloading a million barrels via a Ship-to-Ship transfer first. Captured by @planetlabs #OOTT

@planetlabs True color @planetlabs imagery from further out at sea has now arrived. It was captured 3 hours after the ESA SAR image we posted earlier today. What you see in the image below is the SANDRO being followed by the smaller (Iranian-flagged) tanker JASMINE. STS session soon.

@planetlabs UPDATE (2019-09-29)

SAVIOR has now come back online after nearly an entire month in Syria. The vessel has delivered its 1 million barrel cargo of Iranian crude oil to the Baniyas refinery after holding it for 5 months. She seems to be sailing back to the anchorage of Mersin, TR.

Just for the record: The SAVIOR is now reporting that she is empty and heading to the anchorage of Mersin, Turkey. Thank you.

As we wait for further imagery of additional area coverage to come in, we would like to point out that today we were lucky two land two sets of photos capturing the #AdrianDarya1 in the anchorage of Baniyas; a satellite orbital overlap. Shadows are still thin, meaning she's full.

**BREAKING NEWS** (2019-10-01)

The #AdrianDarya1 is now postured in an STS (Ship-to-Ship) formation with a smaller Iranian-flagged Handymax (350K barrel capacity) tanker called JASMINE. This is not a confirmation of any oil transfer just yet. We'll compare imagery later. #OOTT

Here’s an article (published today) which caught our attention about the tracking of #AdrianDarya1. Sad to see journalists trust official statements over publicly accessible evidence.

Due to the tweet below, we‘ve decided to end our public coverage of the #AdrianDarya1. As of now, our continued coverage will only be available to our Premium subscribers. This was a misuse of our brand and damage to our reputation. Apologies & thx.

https://twitter.com/secpompeo/status/1179252375636320268?s=21

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