Thread by @Usherwood

Let's practice reusing my Twitter thread muscle by discussing the Johnson government really wants a deal or not

1/

Rhetorically, a deal remains the preferred option, but as @BrigidLaffan rightly notes, we have to look to actions, since these seem inconsistent with that aim

2/

@BrigidLaffan Those actions include: a strong fore-grounding of pro-no-dealers in Cabinet; lack of proposals to amend the WA; increased no-deal contingency activity; and a general effort to lay blame for no-deal elsewhere

3/

@BrigidLaffan That last point seems key for me: government seems to angling for "we tried everything to get an exit on 31 Oct, but if it doesn't happen then it was the fault of Parliament (for blocking us) or EU27 (for not renegotiating something we can accept)"

4/

@BrigidLaffan And yet

If the government is willing to go for a 5-week prorogation, then why not a longer one that completely shuts out Parliamentary gambits?

5/

@BrigidLaffan One option is that the legal advice was that this would be too risky/nakedly political/put Queen in an impossible position

Another is that this is intentional, to leave a space for a rushed new WAB

6/

@BrigidLaffan This would fit a 'madman' model, as discussed by @AbhinayMuthoo today: theconversation.com/suspending-par…

7/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo (tl;dr act so erratically that others make more concessions, for fear of what might happen instead)

7 bis/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo the problem with that is that the EU accept the UK might indeed leave with no-deal, as Johnson threatens, but think it's ridiculous because the costs of that choice will weigh much more heavily on UK than EU

8/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo Also, impression from last week of bilateral talks is that EU sees this all as part of a wider gambit by Johnson: note that several reports spoke +ly about UK desire to get into substantive talks

9/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo And yet

There are two immediate and obvious problems

10/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo One is that the UK isn't advancing any proposals. Maybe that's because they worry about leaks. But maybe it's because it doesn't have any proposals to make.

ERG/DUP issues go well beyond the backstop

11/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo And this speaks to the bigger, underlying problem: the government still doesn't have a handle on what Brexit's for.

Without that, it is guessing about what might constitute sufficient WA change to merit ratification

12/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo Hence the earnest enquiries as to whether the EU has any ideas, and the calls for things that aren't even remotely acceptable

13/

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo So, back to the OP: is Johnson looking for a deal or not?

My impression is that he is, but that he's not clear about what that deal might be

Which is going to be an issue

/end

@BrigidLaffan @AbhinayMuthoo Thanks to those who've pointed out the requirement of NI Act, which requires a recall of Parliament in the event of suspension (a safeguard put in for just this purpose) and which also explains the decision not to go for a full-period prorogation.

irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/…