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1. This week's exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah represent, in some respects, a continuation of a successful policy of deterrence by Israel. But they also likely presage a conflict that -- for all Israel tries to postpone it -- remains inevitable.
2. Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israelis (both strategists and the public at large) have been expecting another eruption of violence on that border. Few would have expected more than 13 years without another full-scale conflict erupting.
3. There are many reasons the war hasn't come yet. One is the deterrence Israel achieved by the blows it inflicted on Hezb in 2006. Despite much criticism in Israel over the war's conduct, it left Hezb & its Iranian patrons looking to avoid another round until they were ready.
4. Israel has also been preparing diligently for the next war, even while seeking to postpone it as long as possible. Major intel advances that identify Hezb positions throughout Leb and led to the detection & destruction of Hezb's cross-border tunnels give Israel an upper hand.
5. The development of Israel's US-funded missile defense capabilities, particularly Iron Dome and David's Sling -- which it totally lacked in 2006 -- render Hezbollah's arsenal less potent than it would otherwise be (while still capable of major damage).
6. Israel's vow that in the next war, it will not spare Leb national institutions adds deterrence. Hezb, while a proxy of Iran, also operates in a Lebanese political context, & will be cautious of being blamed (by Shia &other sectors) for dragging Leb back into a destructive war.
7. Chance has also been a factor. A Jan 2015 Hezb border strike, following Israel's elimination of a Hezb terror cell in the Golan, killed 2 Israeli soldiers. But it could easily have been a dozen, which would've produced an escalation. There may have been similar luck this week.
8. And of course, Hezb's deployment to Syria in support of Assad's regime over several years of the civil war meant it was less focused on Israel. But that is changing as its Syrian ops wind down & Iran intensifies its effort to deploy weapons against Israel from every direction.
9. The events this week demonstrate Isr's determination to continue to postpone war as long as possible, &minimize Hezb &Iran's ability to harm Isr if/when it occurs. In Syr, it means continuing the campaign to stop IR mil infrastructure (UAVs, missiles, troops) from taking root.
10. In Lebanon, it means preventing a large scale arsenal of precision missiles that could overwhelm Israel's missile defenses and threaten critical targets. Israel's efforts to prevent the import and production of such missiles have kept the numbers manageable. But only for now.
11. Isr's successful ability to absorb Hezb's strikes yesterday without casualties (&responding without triggering an escalation) was impressive. The decoy evacuation of "injured soldiers" to Rambam Hospital, allowing Hezb to claim it caused casualties, was key to this strategy.
12. Why did Israel reveal the decoy op? Simple: in a democracy, with a citizen army, the military cannot deceive the public about casualties. Operational secrecy is understood, but people expect the IDF to be straight with them about losses. And the IDF adheres to that norm.
13. It's not clear that the decoy op, having been revealed, could work as well a second time. But on this occasion, it was a successful part of a larger strategy to prepare for the next war, postpone it as long as possible, & limit the enemy's capabilities when it does happen.
14. US &Israeli interests are aligned here. US supports Isr's right to defend itself & opposes Iran's threatening policies. Isr action is the main pushback against Iran's regional aggression. Its success, as long as possible without triggering war, very much serves US interests.
15. To support the initiative, US can reinforce messages to the Leb govt, Russia, & indirectly to Iran, reiterating the risk Hezb/Iran's reckless actions poses to the Lebanese state &people. US-Israel op/intel coord can also help avoid escalations, &manage them if they occur. End
