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Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
, 7 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
BREAKING - Likely #Israel airstrikes just hit a scientific research center - reportedly linked to the SSRC - in #Latakia.

#Assad regime air defenses were allegedly activated in multiple provinces: #Latakia, #Tartus, #Homs & #Hama.
Mabrouk #Assad - your invincible air defenses shot down an aircraft!

... a #Russia IL-20 reconnaissance plane was shot down over #Syria tonight - amid #Israel airstrikes in #Latakia.

#OwnGoal

Tonight’s developments vis-a-vis #Israel & Russia are a pretty big deal.

It would seem #Israel may have acted without giving #Moscow prior warning = big challenge to their prior arrangement.

Or, #Russia did know, but got attacked by their errant ally in #Damascus = humiliating.
Overnight, we got yet another example of how #Russia - in this case, it’s MoD & state media - spout disinformation & conspiracy to distract from the truth.

No, #Israel did not down a RuAF plane.

No, #France did not fire missiles at #Syria.

For context:

Downing of #Russia’s IL-20 in #Syria was a result of #Assad regime/SAA incompetence.

- Failed to distinguish friend/foe
- SAA SAMs took so long to activate, (1) #Israeli jets were already gone & (2) #Russia’s IL-20 had arrived

Humiliating for #Moscow; hence #Putin climbdown.
Worth also bearing in mind the complex dynamic between #Israel & #Russia:

- The “glue” is the #Netanyahu-#Putin relationship, but the IDF/IAF - RuAF dynamic is a fragile one, based on deconfliction, not friendship.

This challenges both that dynamic & the #Syria-#Russia one.
NEW -- #Israel satellite imagery shows the #Iran/#IRGC warehouse/factory targeted in airstrikes 36hrs ago, which was being used to funnel weaponry to #Hezbollah in #Syria & #Lebanon.
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There is a possibility of an announcement today. That’s if the collective U.S. government is unable to push back against #Trump - as it did earlier in the year after his comments in #Ohio.

More than anything, this is an extraordinary insult to the recent efforts of Amb. Jeffrey.
#pt: #Trump told #Turkey’s #Erdogan of his intentions by phone on Friday last week.

Coming in the context of Turkish threats to intervene in NE #Syria, the message to the #YPG/#SDF couldn’t be any worse. The US will abandon “the Kurds” again, if #Trump gets his way here.
#pt: Worse still, this’ll be music to the ears of #ISIS, #Assad, #Russia & #Iran.

#Trump isn’t only doing what #Obama did in leaving #Iraq prematurely, he’s doing it in an environment in which #America’s adversaries will benefit: jihadis, #Iran and #Russia.

Unbelievable hubris.
Read 10 tweets
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My goodness: here's a prime example of policy advocacy on #Syria based either on ignorance, or [hopefully not] malign intent.

This is *riddled* with inaccuracy & misinformation.

@steelejourno says the West should force an opposition surrender in #Syria:

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@steelejourno #pt: @steelejourno says the US, UK & #France are “less honorable” in seeking to delay #Syria & #Russia’s “success” in regaining territory.

- They seek to enable a meaningful political process, in which there’s an opposition entity to sit at the table. I’d say that is honorable.
@steelejourno #pt: Here, @steelejourno says UK, US, France & "Gulf Arab monarchies” want ceasefires to protect rebels, not civilians.

In #Idlib, nothing could be further from the truth. None of those countries have *any* ties to rebel groups in #Idlib, who only equal ~0.5% of the population.
Read 10 tweets
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Absolutely extraordinary.

#Syria’s air defense systems have no way to determine “friend” from “foe.” #Russia doesn’t export that tech.

Within a complex & unpredictable environment, that raises the risk to civilian aircraft
significantly.
#Israel says #Syria’s air defense fired “dozens” of anti-aircraft missiles from several batteries across the country over the space of 40-mins… *after* #IAF planes had returned to #Israel.

One took down #Russia’s IL-20.

timesofisrael.com/syria-fired-mi…
To me, this looks like messaging more than a truly dramatic change in reality/dynamics:

- S-300s already deployed in #Syria.

- #Israel (& US) uses encrypted radar/GPS; less vulnerable to counter-measures

- #Russia has been “jamming” for 2+ yrs.

- #Israel fires most from Med.
Read 5 tweets

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