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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Good morning! Kind of a cool but hazy here in Hong Kong. Overnight, we got stronger new home sales (so lower rates help) & businesses borrowing for equipment rises.

Regarding the impeachment - key is that it is a process that'd remove an elected president so better have cause.
This is a very risky move as the outcome is: a) people shift towards Pelosi, meaning the public even if she can't convince 20 GOP senators to remove the president; b) people feel compelled to show up to vote in 2020 to support Trump.

Either way, markets shrugged. In Asia, we got
A stronger USD (DXY now 98.93) due to stronger data & perceived lower risks (trade-war & impeachment).

The Philippines will make its interest rate decision today & we think it will cut rates by 25bps as investment data is rather weak and there is space from inflation.
Korea got stronger September consumer confidence - bounced to 96.9 from 92.5 but doesn't change the fact that Korean households are saddled with debt. Job situation is not better as Korea firms offshore production. Demographic is getting worse.

And exports are contracting still.
Since I am not a political expert, this morning, I'm reading some analysis on the impeachment. Feel free to share as well. This one is not bad - 1974 or 1998?

politico.com/magazine/story…
Article below on Democrats struggling for a common message against Pres Trump for impeachment. To me, there should be only one message to impeach an elected president - that is he broke the law.

Did he break the law? Did he commit a crime? If no, ...

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
This is a big deal that China didn't get included. Malaysia was very worried about what this inclusion would mean for their weight & push reforms (usually if a country is included then others' weight would decline like MSCI where China's higher share is at the expense of Korea)
Malaysia is on the watchlist for EJECTION of the index & FTSE says Malaysia needs to do more to widen market access. BNM announced additional measures to give more flexibility to foreign investors to trade in the ringgit, & for resident businesses to manage hedging of FX.
Malaysia has the most foreign bond participation (no original sin as they invest in ringgit). China exclusion is key in that China needs capital inflows at the moment & reflects investors' demand for criteria to be met for inclusion.

This takes us to India - reforms needed too!
Read 5 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
The double Ds - demographic & debt - & how that leads to the triple Ds - DEFLATION.

Ready?
#demographics World population growth rates are expected to slow, w/ contraction in many places (think Europe, East Asia - Japan, China, South Korea, etc).

We will grow at the slowest pace than anytime since 1950. Growth rate peaked in 1965-1970 👈🏻
#demographics Breaking this down into regions - very clear that Asian population peaking & will fall.

Look at Sub-Saharan Africa. Note that this is a projection & we shouldn't take anything beyond 2050 too seriously. The UN revises this very often but still useful for trends.
Read 25 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
#China said to be preparing to buy more USA 🇺🇸 pork 🐷🐽. Food inflation is off the chart because of the protein shortage while PPI is deflated. Need to get food deflation down ASAP!
*Should be food inflation not DEFLATION. Woops. Deflation is in PPI while CPI is rising from food prices.
Stocks are reversing some losses as it at the margin means that hopefully there is more pork supply to ease some out of control pork prices onshore and hopefully that will lead to inflation easing (not soon but light at the end of the tunnel) & hopefully space to ease by the PBOC
Read 7 tweets

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Ben Norton
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New @Moderate_Rebels episode on Hong Kong:

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soundcloud.com/moderaterebels…
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THREAD: So #USWMNT has just beat England in #WWC19! 🇺🇸

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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
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Sweta Rajan
@Rajan_Sweta
Sharing #MyStory as an #international #immigrant a part of @IWS_Network #Voices without #Frontiers initiative! As a #scientist and an advocate for #workplaceequality, I believe in the power of stories. #IWS #VoicesIWS #SayItForward #WomenInspire #WomeninScience #WomenInSTEM
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Shadeed Q. Eleazer
@mrshadeed
Did you know that over 80% of businesses are undercharging for their services?

Here's why you need to raise your rates:

(Thread)

#Sales #smallbiz
Raising Your Rates is a Sign of Professionalism:

If you pay rent, your property management company raises rent each year.
The cost of access to gas, electric, and other utilities also rises each year.

Your rates must rise to support cost of living expenses.
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Premium rates signify quality, prestige, and luxury for business services.
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