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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Radical right and centre left slump; greens and centre right surge. Something for everyone in the Austrian election
So far this year in W European elections we have had:
DK: Centre-left govt takes over thanks to gains for liberal left and radical left. Rad rt slumps
FI: Centre-left govt takes over thanks to gains for greens and radical left. Rad rt treads water.
1/?
GR: Centre-right wins after radical left *and* radical right slump (far right Golden Dawn disappear from Parliament entirely)
BE: Radical right, far left and Greens all make gains, everyone else goes backwards
2/?
Portugal, which votes next week looks set to deliver a big win for the centre-left.
Hard to discern any common trends here beyond growing volatility across European electorates. Certainly hard to square such results with "inexorable rise of rad rt populism" narratives 3/?
If anything this year's results would suggest a drift towards the left (new and old) - centre left, Green or rad left parties have made gains in every country voting this yr except Greece, where the radical left were an unpopular incumbent govt. Portugal set to follow that trend
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"

That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
This by @stephenkb is exactly right and illustrates why the Labour partisans attacking the Lib Dems for “blocking” a Corbyn led unity govt are in fact doing the same thing as Swinson et al - partisan signalling
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Labour politicians and partisan, assuming they can do basic arithmetic, know just as well as everyone else that without the votes of former Con and Lab independent MPs there is no majority for a govt of national unity. And they know such inds will never back Corbyn.
So why are they trying to spin the yarn that only selfish LDs stand in the way of a Corbyn govt averting no deal, which they must know is false? For the same reason that LDs themselves insist Corbyn is unacceptable: they see an electoral interest in doing so
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
If you imagined a scenario where the Lib Dems end up supplanting Labour among Remain voters, this is the kind of polling you would expect as a starting point to an election focussed entirely on Brexit. A lot could change in campaign of course, but v. worrying for Lab
Remain voters don't think they are pro-Remain and now increasingly convinced they have an alternative who are. Meanwhile basically zero Leave voters think Lab are in favour of Leave either, so Lab have to hope such voters have other reasons to back them.
It *might* work, of course - arguably something like this worked in 2017. But if it doesn't work, we will all look back at polling like this and say "the warning signs were there".
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