Thread by @AMTabaqchali

My reading into the demographic sustainability of the protest movement & the inevitability of reform.

1001iraqithoughts.com/2018/06/25/the…

I argued, following the 2018 elections & based on the works ....

1/7

... of Falah Jaber’s “The Iraqi Protest Movement: Frm Identity Politics to Issue Politics,” & Faris Kamal Nadhmi’s “Historical Bloc” thesis: that the 2015 protest movement which resulted in the break-up of the ethno-sectarian monolithic blocs dominant over the past 15 years,
2/7

will continue to influence the political landscape for an extended period leading to meaningful change.

Demographic trends support this: Jaber’s survey notes the under 30’s age group accounted for 60% of the protest movement.

3/7

The active component of this demographic, ie the 20-29 age group, accounts for 17% of the total population. This group, joined by Iraq’s young population, will grow every year.

4/7

This subset of the protest movement predominantly belonging to the middle & lower middle class, which depends on public sector employment for social mobility while also depending on the state for the provision of services.

5/7

The combination of poor to non-existent pubic services & the recognition that past policies of continuously expanding the state payroll have reached their limits, was the common thread that started the protest movement.

6/7

While the realization that the same combination has failed in building a diversified economy that can provide opportunities for the population, has sustained it.

7/7

@threadreaderapp #unroll