Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. How might a a full scale war in Northern Syria work? First, Erdogan will try to free all the #ISIS in Howl Camp and the #SDF may not be able to hold Howl and be needed to reinforce the border. So 20,000 ISIS fighters will be in the wind. Next Turkey will concentrate

2. armored force to enter Kurdish and Christian areas to begin the jihadist genocide. SDF may allow them in to close the door and take them out with RPG-7s. The highly mobile SDF may cross the border and get behind the Turks and create a fire zone in the Turkish towns and cities

3. on the boarder that will all be destroyed. All the bridges power facilities and dams in Southern Turkey could be strategic objectives. In the end southern Turkey and northern Syria will be destroyed and 4 million more refugees will be on the move towards Europe.

4. Erdogan is ISIS folks. It's been obvious for over 4 years. He's the problem. Until he's out of office this will never end. @GermanyDiplo @foreignoffice @GCHQ