1. We all have our opinions and this is mine:

There will finally be a chance at PEACE!!!
2. Look for this to be spun as:

• Russia is the winner
• Trump is Putin’s puppet
• Yadda Yadda Yadda

The people saying this are pissed bc they were dead-set from the start to get rid of Assad and it’s not likely to happen.
3. Also look for the ‘Fancy Pants’ to say that this will hurt Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran. They’ll say:

• Assad is aligned/supported by Iran
• Assad wins = Iran wins

While there is some truth to that, it completely misses the forrest for trees.
4. We have MUCH BIGGER Iran problems in Iraq... that no one in media wants to talk about.

For years now Iran has crept into Iraqi politics & security - this is a real issue that needs focus & continued Syria #shitshow only makes that worse, imo.
5. I share Trump’s stance - we only need to be in Syria to kill ISIS.

The current narrative that Turkey’s invasion (with Trump’s passive approval) will aid a resurgence in ISIS no longer has teeth.

The Kurds & Assad will continue to kill ISIS - the ‘vacuum’ is gone.
6. An example of Iranian concerns in Iraq: ‘HashD’ (aka Popular Mobilization Forces) has largely filled the void from our exit.

• 2+ million total; upwards of 500k armed militia
• Shia dominant which are Iran/Hezbollah/Quds backed
• growing Sunni numbers backed by Turkey
7. I don’t normally like to share wiki as a source, but that region is so complicated... just start here.

8. How complicated is it? Check out this image of their allies...

(How often do you see the US Flag listed next to those others?)

In short, it’s impossible to overstate the size of the #ShitShow that Trump inherited!!

9. The reason I support Trump’s move is bc imo... the only way to to handle these bigger challenges is to simplify our engagements and focus direction on Iran.

Instead of sending pallets of 💰we should have been focused on limiting their role in Iraq.
10. I’m not saying HashD is our enemy - I’m using this example to demonstrate the success of Iran’s influence.

I *am* saying that they represent a significant risk...

The big winner of 2008-2016 was Iran - the big loser was everyone else.
11. Worse yet, while the defeat of ISIS in Syria/Iran was rightly our goal, it’s a bit of a double-edged sword...

The large swaths of land no longer under ISIS control represent a sort of opportunity for further Iranian influence.

It’s a new ‘vacuum’ of sorts, adding risk.
12. The situation is incredibly complex - by killing our enemy it could potentially strengthen Iran.

How would you like to take office with those kinds of problems?

Again, we need to simplify and focus strategy on Iran - that is what POTUS is doing.
13. And if you aren’t ready for pitchforks in the street over Obama/Brennan’s 8 year reign yet, maybe this will help:

There is a significant amount of truth in this Sy Hersh article claiming that Obama/Clinton/Brennan aided ISIS!

14. Idk what % of it is accurate, but at least (at a high level)... we know it’s true.

We gave support to the terrorists that destabilized 1/2 of Iraq, effectively clearing the way for Iran to gain further (long-term) influence.

Again... Iran is the big winner 2008-16!
15. If you question the accuracy of Sy’s reporting, which is a healthy exercise imo, then consider this:

When a terrorist was on trial in UK for involvement with ISIS in Syria, his defense team reference Sy’s reporting and the charges were dropped.

16. Imagine that - not being able to charge a terrorist... bc he was a part of the terror group that your government was actively supporting!

Are the complexities sinking in yet?
17. When it came to the 2016 election, what was on the front of my mind was:

• If Clinton wins it’ll be WW3 within 6 months (Syria-Iraq = Ground Zero)
• It maybe unavoidable even if Trump wins
• If Trump wins we’ll be able to fight like hell
18. In short, I didn’t have the expectation that even Trump could avoid it...

After visits all over Middle-East & N. Africa... I saw it as more likely than not.

The entire region was a powder keg; EVERYONE was fighting... and our country was CLUELESS of the realities.
19. And then... this trip changed my mind - instead of going to Europe & eating crepes & drinking gin, @realDonaldTrump made his first international trip to KSA!

20. The trip was in May 2017 and almost everyone missed the significance (at that time), (a forgivable offense)!

For point of reference, Trump had fired Comey 2 weeks before and Mueller had just been appointed.

Our own country was in chaos.
21. And in addition to our general lack of awareness of how bad things were in MENA... media gaslighted the piss out of this trip (per usual).

22. Media is excellent at gaslighting 1/2 truths... and here is a prime example:

Is this point accurate? Sure.

But it completely ignores the FACT that the Obama Administration was doing the SAME DAMN THING!!!

23. So while the Coup was in full-force at home, entirely aided by #FakeNews, they smear his trip with 1/2 truths...

And the only thing he was guilty of is trying to avoid WW3.

It’s indescribable the disservice of our media... 🤦🏻‍♂️
24. He went directly into the heart of the region and declared a new day!

Even if you listen intently before, listen to this speech again!

• Look at who was there
• Listen to what he said

Take it all in with the advantages of hindsight - amazing!

25. And set aside your bias for a moment and put yourselves in the shoes of every leader in that room...

Recall that they were still dealing with unrest, even civil wars, as a result of Arab Spring!
26. Take a moment to also consider this:

While some of Biden’s Ukraine mess is in our news cycle... note that much of the propaganda & training that went into Ukraine Revolution showed up in Arab Spring.

(We’ll come back to that more later)
27. Complex enough yet? The reality as I understand it is this:

Trump took office in the middle of the most dynamic #ShitShow the world has ever seen...

And the same Assholes that caused the Global #ShitShow are the same exact Assholes that are trying to take him out.
28. And despite all of the complexity... and ALL of the attacks, he’s successfully navigating it all.

• He understood these realities when he went to KSA
• He understands them today
• He’s making the right call on Syria

Iran had better watch out!

Addendum: @ColJimWaurishuk wrote an awesome piece today that in large part, if not entirely, with my thread (above).

Col. Waurishuk is retired @usairforce so you know he is of good pedigree. 😎

I’m adding bc he covers a topic I didn’t get into in my thread - the political make-up of what media calls ‘The Kurds’.

Make sure to check out for that reason alone.
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