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, 68 tweets, 5 min read
This is going to be one of the most complex Twitter threads I have ever attempted

But the subject is important

When Johnson brings a framework of a Brexit Deal to the Commons on 19 Oct, how will MPs vote?

1/x
The idea of the thread is to crowd source intelligence on how MPs are going to vote, and see if that adds up to a majority

This is for all of our understanding

Please RT widely, and respond honestly. If you have no idea how a MP will likely vote, please skip to the next

2/x
In this thread there are 58 MPs listed

These are the MPs - 20 independents, 16 Labour, 22 Tories - on whom a Deal (or not) will hinge

3/x
The 20 independents are mostly Tories that lost the whip

The 16 Labour MPs are mostly those that signed this letter, but did not back MV3


The 22 Tories are mostly ERG hardliners who opposed MV3

4/x
Data for this thread comes from:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
&
buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/br…

And there are then 9 Tory (switching), 5 Independent & 6 Labour MPs who will pretty certainly be in favour

And 11 Independents pretty certainly against

See the screenshots for their names

5/x
So on to the 58 MPs

Each MP is named, has their (ex-)party affiliation listed, and for each you can vote in the Twitter Poll:

For the Deal
Abstain or No Vote
Against the Deal
No idea

Polls close at 1700 CET Friday

6/x
I also will start with the DUP's 10 MPs, en bloc (even though we have indication they will vote against)

After that - polls of the 58 MPs. Vote away!

DUP - how will they vote? 10 MPs

7/66
Duncan Smith, Iain
Conservative

8/66
Johnson, Jo
Conservative

9/66
May, Theresa
Conservative

10/66
Afriyie, Adam
Conservative (was against MV3)

11/66
Baker, Steve
Conservative (was against MV3)

12/66
Braverman, Suella
Conservative (was against MV3)

13/66
Cash, Bill
Conservative (was against MV3)

14/66
Chope, Christopher
Conservative (was against MV3)

15/66
Francois, Mark
Conservative (was against MV3)

16/66
Fysh, Marcus
Conservative (was against MV3)

17/66
Hollobone, Philip
Conservative (was against MV3)

18/66
Holloway, Adam
Conservative (was against MV3)

19/66
Jenkin, Bernard
Conservative (was against MV3)

20/66
Lewis, Dr Julian
Conservative (was against MV3)

21/66
Lopez, Julia
Conservative (was against MV3)

22/66
Mackinlay, Craig
Conservative (was against MV3)

23/66
Morris, Anne Marie
Conservative (was against MV3)

24/66
Paterson, Owen
Conservative (was against MV3)

(there may be a break of thread after this one - bear with me!)

25/66
Redwood, John
Conservative (was against MV3)

26/66
Robertson, Laurence
Conservative (was against MV3)

27/66
Rosindell, Andrew
Conservative (was against MV3)

28/66
Rowley, Lee
Conservative (was against MV3)

29/66
Field, Frank
Independent (ex-Labour)

30/66
Hopkins, Kelvin
Independent (ex-Labour)

31/66
Rudd, Amber
Independent (ex-Tory)

32/66
Hermon, Sylvia
Independent (NI)

33/66
Benyon, Richard
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

34/66
Brine, Steve
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

35/66
Burt, Alastair
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

36/66
Clark, Greg
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

37/66
Clarke, Kenneth
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

38/66
Gauke, David
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

39/66
Hammond, Philip
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

40/66
Hammond, Stephen
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

41/66
Harrington, Richard
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

42/66
James, Margot
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

43/66
Milton, Ann
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

44/66
Noakes, Caroline
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

45/66
Sandbach, Antoinette
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

46/66
Soames, Nicholas
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

47/66
Stewart, Rory
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

48/66
Vaizey, Edward
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

49/66
Nandy, Lisa
Labour

(note thread might break again here - please keep on!)

50/66
Hoey, Kate
Labour (known sceptic)

51/66
Champion, Sarah
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

52/66
Cruddas, Jon
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

53/66
De Piero, Gloria
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

54/66
Fovargue, Yvonne
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

55/66
Jarvis, Dan
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

56/66
Kinnock, Stephen
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

57/66
Lewell-Buck, Emma
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

58/66
Madders, Justin
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

59/66
Onn, Melanie
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

60/66
Peacock, Stephen
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

61/66
Powell, Lucy
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

62/66
Smeeth, Ruth
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

63/66
Smith, Laura
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

64/66
Snell, Gareth
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

65/66
That's it folks!

If you got this far, thank you! 💪

Comments most welcome, and if a MP listed here has gone on the record to state their position, let me know!

Results will be published around 1730 CET Friday 18 Oct!

66/66
And one more!

Some Lib Dems tell me Norman Lamb might back the Deal. So here is a poll for him.

I have also been told Soames and Burt will definitely back the Deal, but I cannot remove the polls for those 2.

67/66
So @DomWalsh13 and @cjayanetti think I am wrong to not include Ivan Lewis (ex-Labour, Independent) in this thread. I had him as certain against (based on MV3) in tweet 5.

But let's test it - how will Ivan Lewis vote?

68/66
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Using my time on the Eurostar to London for "Super Saturday" to make the latest #BrexitDiagram V30

This one covers the impact of the Letwin Amendment and how that impacts overall #Brexit outcomes

This is really important - as I explain in the thread
All the media focus has been on how MPs will vote on the Deal Johnson got in Brussels - and #VoteDownTheDeal

However something else - the Letwin Amendment - is actually more important to the outcome now
The Letwin Amendment means the UK has to request an #Article50 Extension *anyway*, buying time for the Commons and Lords to scrutinise the Deal

But other things - notably the vote on the Queen's Speech - happen during this period, and that poses problems for the Government
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK.

This changes the whole arithmetic and procedure for tomorrow, if Speaker allows it to be voted on.

With Labour backing this will likely pass. So Johnson MUST ask for an extension. MPs will not be bounced into a decision.
I have also hence deleted my vote prediction tweets for tomorrow, because it is now highly likely that all of this will not actually come to a vote.

As Boles, Letwin and Hammond, P are backing the Amendment, it's odds on to pass.
Also note to #EUCO, @eucopresident, Macron, Merkel et al - that extension request is going to be coming!
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I’m anti Brexit. I think this endeavour is foolish.

But doing it this way is extremely foolish. Whatever your view of Brexit.
First: there will be no impact assessment on the costs of this Deal available to MPs tomorrow

How can MPs make a judgment without that?
Second: the text of this Deal came out yesterday. Do MPs understand it? If they don’t, does anyone fully understand it yet?

- 63 pages Revised Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement

- 26 pages Revised Political Declaration

- 3 pages Unilateral Declaration of Consent
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1/n
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@StuartBudd1
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57% backed #PeoplesVote
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theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
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