Thread by @jonworth

This is going to be one of the most complex Twitter threads I have ever attempted

But the subject is important

When Johnson brings a framework of a Brexit Deal to the Commons on 19 Oct, how will MPs vote?

1/x

The idea of the thread is to crowd source intelligence on how MPs are going to vote, and see if that adds up to a majority

This is for all of our understanding

Please RT widely, and respond honestly. If you have no idea how a MP will likely vote, please skip to the next

2/x

In this thread there are 58 MPs listed

These are the MPs - 20 independents, 16 Labour, 22 Tories - on whom a Deal (or not) will hinge

3/x

The 20 independents are mostly Tories that lost the whip

The 16 Labour MPs are mostly those that signed this letter, but did not back MV3

https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1181587520318033922

The 22 Tories are mostly ERG hardliners who opposed MV3

4/x

Data for this thread comes from:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
&
buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/br…

And there are then 9 Tory (switching), 5 Independent & 6 Labour MPs who will pretty certainly be in favour

And 11 Independents pretty certainly against

See the screenshots for their names

5/x

So on to the 58 MPs

Each MP is named, has their (ex-)party affiliation listed, and for each you can vote in the Twitter Poll:

For the Deal
Abstain or No Vote
Against the Deal
No idea

Polls close at 1700 CET Friday

6/x

I also will start with the DUP's 10 MPs, en bloc (even though we have indication they will vote against)

After that - polls of the 58 MPs. Vote away!

DUP - how will they vote? 10 MPs

7/66

Duncan Smith, Iain
Conservative

8/66

Johnson, Jo
Conservative

9/66

May, Theresa
Conservative

10/66

Afriyie, Adam
Conservative (was against MV3)

11/66

Baker, Steve
Conservative (was against MV3)

12/66

Braverman, Suella
Conservative (was against MV3)

13/66

Cash, Bill
Conservative (was against MV3)

14/66

Chope, Christopher
Conservative (was against MV3)

15/66

Francois, Mark
Conservative (was against MV3)

16/66

Fysh, Marcus
Conservative (was against MV3)

17/66

Hollobone, Philip
Conservative (was against MV3)

18/66

Holloway, Adam
Conservative (was against MV3)

19/66

Jenkin, Bernard
Conservative (was against MV3)

20/66

Lewis, Dr Julian
Conservative (was against MV3)

21/66

Lopez, Julia
Conservative (was against MV3)

22/66

Mackinlay, Craig
Conservative (was against MV3)

23/66

Morris, Anne Marie
Conservative (was against MV3)

24/66

Paterson, Owen
Conservative (was against MV3)

(there may be a break of thread after this one - bear with me!)

25/66

Redwood, John
Conservative (was against MV3)

26/66

Robertson, Laurence
Conservative (was against MV3)

27/66

Rosindell, Andrew
Conservative (was against MV3)

28/66

Rowley, Lee
Conservative (was against MV3)

29/66

Field, Frank
Independent (ex-Labour)

30/66

Hopkins, Kelvin
Independent (ex-Labour)

31/66

Rudd, Amber
Independent (ex-Tory)

32/66

Hermon, Sylvia
Independent (NI)

33/66

Benyon, Richard
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

34/66

Brine, Steve
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

35/66

Burt, Alastair
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

36/66

Clark, Greg
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

37/66

Clarke, Kenneth
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

38/66

Gauke, David
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

39/66

Hammond, Philip
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

40/66

Hammond, Stephen
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

41/66

Harrington, Richard
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

42/66

James, Margot
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

43/66

Milton, Ann
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

44/66

Noakes, Caroline
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

45/66

Sandbach, Antoinette
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

46/66

Soames, Nicholas
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

47/66

Stewart, Rory
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

48/66

Vaizey, Edward
Independent (Tory, whip removed)

49/66

Nandy, Lisa
Labour

(note thread might break again here - please keep on!)

50/66

Hoey, Kate
Labour (known sceptic)

51/66

Champion, Sarah
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

52/66

Cruddas, Jon
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

53/66

De Piero, Gloria
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

54/66

Fovargue, Yvonne
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

55/66

Jarvis, Dan
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

56/66

Kinnock, Stephen
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

57/66

Lewell-Buck, Emma
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

58/66

Madders, Justin
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

59/66

Onn, Melanie
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

60/66

Peacock, Stephen
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

61/66

Powell, Lucy
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

62/66

Smeeth, Ruth
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

63/66

Smith, Laura
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

64/66

Snell, Gareth
Labour (signed the 19 MP letter to Juncker)

65/66

That's it folks!

If you got this far, thank you! 💪

Comments most welcome, and if a MP listed here has gone on the record to state their position, let me know!

Results will be published around 1730 CET Friday 18 Oct!

66/66

And one more!

Some Lib Dems tell me Norman Lamb might back the Deal. So here is a poll for him.

I have also been told Soames and Burt will definitely back the Deal, but I cannot remove the polls for those 2.

67/66

So @DomWalsh13 and @cjayanetti think I am wrong to not include Ivan Lewis (ex-Labour, Independent) in this thread. I had him as certain against (based on MV3) in tweet 5.

But let's test it - how will Ivan Lewis vote?

68/66