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, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Look at a globe. The EU will always be on our doorstep. That means it will always be our largest and most important market. A referendum can't beat geography.
Note: we cannot replace EU trade (measured in hours) with trade with the rest of the world (long sea crossings take weeks or months, and even if we accepted the environmental consequences we don't have the capacity to switch to air freight.)
For reference we bring in 177x more by sea than by air. Short of inventing a teleporter, nothing we can do will make a dent in that.
I dug into this in more detail with a lot of those pesky stats and facts Brexiters hate in my book. I also looked at what, if anything, the RAF might be able to do to help alleviate the situation through an emergency airlift...
amazon.co.uk/dp/B07Z1FTRQW/…
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
Crucial point some people may have missed in the flurry of talk about a transition period: On Brexit Day (currently 31 October 2019) Article 50 goes away, and with it any chance of revoking and remaining in the EU. We will be OUT. Transition only deadens the pain a while.
As a consequence, the end of the transition period is another no deal cliff edge. But this time one we don't have the option of revoking Article 50 to avoid! Only way to avoid going over post-transition cliff edge is to agree our future relationship with the EU during transition.
Now, the EU will know that. They will know they have us over a barrel, weaker than any country has ever been before. Because the end of transition will be coming up FAST. So we will need a deal - any deal - to avoid it. Will we get a great deal from them? What do you think...
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
There are a huge number of problems and unexploded mines buried in the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill that MPs will be debating at breakneck speed over the next 3 days. You can find everything I teased out in the thread embedded below.
My pick of the worst? Tough, but I'd say it's that only the Government get to decide *if* the transition period is extended, and for how long. Parliament says Y/N but nothing more. And if it's N then that's the end, because only one transition extension is possible.
The other huge one is that the Government has to negotiate along the lines of the PD. Parliament can sign off on the negotiating mandate (if it doesn't, no negotiations) but can't change it. And Boris Johnson made the PD harder than Theresa May's so automatically a harder Brexit.
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
All of the following are members of Prosperity UK, a think tank that seems to have raised questions over the last few days. When you see how closely the list maps to the hard Brexiters, I'm not too surprised. Labour MPs also on the list: Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock etc.
And here's a team from Prosperity UK a few weeks ago admitting they didn't have a clue how many £billions it would cost to put alternative arrangements in for the Irish border. ("Prosperity UK, funded by a Brexit-supporting hedge fund manager" 🤔🤔🤔 )
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
And it's very well connected. Michael Gove and Greg Clarke have made speeches at its conferences. It's met with special advisors. And the co-founder of Prosperity UK is one of five non-executive board members at the Treasury.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 11 tweets

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Hilary. I'm a Joiner. We all are.
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All fallacies applied to or derived from 🇬🇧 Trading Situation
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Our session with @LiamFox has now started. Keep an eye on our twitter page for updates and watch live here: goo.gl/hKxVwX
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
"More people who have discouraged and sitting on the sidelines are now throwing their hat back into ring and deciding to look for jobs," says @IvankaTrump.
Cabinet meeting presentation being made by @IvankaTrump who announces tomorrow that the National Council for the American Worker will be unveiled.
During Cabinet meeting @POTUS called on @IvankaTrump sitting behind him to make a presentation. He asked press pool whether they wanted to stay or leave and allowed them to remain in the room.
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