Thread by @AndrewSErickson

Honored to publish @WarOnTheRocks!

Make #China Great Again: #Xi’s Truly #GrandStrategy

bit.ly/XiGrandStrategy

PRC strategy has broadly-defined arc that US should address w/ strategy of “#CompetitiveCoexistence” to safeguard interests sustainably amid increasing assertiveness.

@WarOnTheRocks With the grandest & most strategic vision of any great power, Xi & his Party have staked their persistence in power on the proposition that they alone can make China great again, in part by achieving hierarchically prioritized national security interests.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks Realizing this “#ChinaDream,” as #Xi defines it, by 2049 or even earlier requires subordinating #HongKong to Beijing’s unchallenged control, incorporating #Taiwan formally into the PRC, and realizing a variety of disputed #NearSeas sovereignty claims.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks These objectives pit #China directly against important interests, policies, treaty obligations, and military preparations of the United States and its allies and partners.

Even if parties can avoid a collision course, it will not be smooth sailing.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks Yet, with the right navigation, the American ship of state can stay strong & successful: Washington must hold off Beijing’s irredentism until slowing in Chinese national power growth combined with domestic demands reprioritizes policies toward peacefulness.warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks China under Xi clearly has a strategy. The US clearly needs one of its own.

With 4 decades of deep engagement foundering on Chinese ambitions & American concerns, Washington needs a new approach.

I propose a strategy of “#CompetitiveCoexistence,” which boils down to 4 points:

@WarOnTheRocks Don't suppress China wholesale; do oppose its harmful behaviors.

Accept risk & friction to recalibrate PRC actions threatening American interests.

Hold ground in contested areas to thwart PRC dominance.

Reduce tensions & pursue shared interests as much as PRC is willing to do.

@WarOnTheRocks By nearly any measure, China’s power has grown formidable indeed.

But there is no need for Washington to yield to Beijing’s demands in the #WindowofVulnerability before national #slowdown recalibrates Chinese priorities.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks In addition to its own unparalleled strengths, America has a unique array of allies & partners for burden sharing & force multiplication.

It must leverage this advantage to safeguard its interests against Chinese pressure.

Only then can all the necessary numbers truly add up.

@WarOnTheRocks As for the United States and China, while they contend continuously and interact in contested spaces, may nevertheless avoid kinetic conflict — and may even pursue shared interests as #StrategicStakeholders where mutually motivated.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

@WarOnTheRocks This is not a panacea. #China will continue to promote its own concepts.

But given the reality of US public opinion & economic + security concerns, it is likely the most realistic place to start.

Here are the next steps toward #CompetitiveCoexistence:

news.yahoo.com/competitive-co…

@WarOnTheRocks Honored to publish @WarOnTheRocks!

Make #China Great Again: #Xi’s Truly #GrandStrategy

bit.ly/XiGrandStrategy

PRC strategy has broadly-defined arc that US should address w/ strategy of “#CompetitiveCoexistence” to safeguard interests sustainably amid increasing assertiveness.