Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread
Colombia's oil is significant to US
1- The oil industry in Colombia has perfected replacing & fixing oil pipelines more than any other country in the world. It experienced more attacks on pipelines than any other country

democracynow.org/2019/11/22/col…

2- Although Colombia has experience with insurgency and attacks on pipelines for decades, large demonstrations are something different. However, oil fields are relatively away from population centers
Map is relatively old.

3- Just like in Iraq and Iran, oil workers are from the local population, and might go on strike, crippling production and exports. A large number of Venezuelan petroleum engineers, geologists & others work in Colombia. They will get stuck in this political divide in Colombia

4- In fact, if the tide turns in Colombia, and a new leftist government takes over, Venezuelans who moved to colombia will suffer. I can see how many Venezuelans are looking for a way out as we speak.

5- It remains to be seen if the US will let Colombia slip out of its hand. It is not only the country, the war on drugs, and US companies' investment that matter, but Colombia has become a major exporter of oil to the US and a promising market for US LNG.

6- Colombia produces about 880 kbd and expected to increase production significantly in the coming years. It exports about half of its production, most of it to the US.
Crude quality is highly desired by US refineries. For #IMO2020, it also produces heavy sweet!

7- You can see now, if we lose all or part of Colombia's oil, or if investments in upstream are delayed, the stars are lining up for Canadian oil! Will Canadian politicians wake up to this reality & take advantage of it? It could be once in a lifetime opportunity
#Canada wake up!

8- Substitution:
In 2016: As Canada's crude oil production declined due to fires, Mexico's oil production declined naturally & Venezuelan oil declined due to political instability, US refiners started importing a substitute from Colombia: Puerto Bahia (19.8 API, sulfur: 1.6%)

9- Colombia exports 5 types of crudes that US refineries need:
- Castilla: 18.8 API, 1.97% sulfur (S)
- Magdalena: 20.4, API 1.60% S
- Vasconia: 24.3 API, 0.83 S (Heavy sweet, for #IMO2020)
- Caño Limón: 29.1 API, 0.5% S (Medium sweet, #IMO2020)
- South Blend: 28.6 API, 0.72% S

Finally, in LATAM, people are demonstrating against leftist governments while in others demonstrate against right wing governments.
When politicians are idealogues, they do not deliver, whether on the right or the left, leading to corruption and income inequality