So 2 new polls show Tories dropping a bit. But we're actually *increasing* our % of a Tory majority Govt (from 45 to 60%) & reducing odds of Labour minority Govt (from 30 to 25%). Why? 10 reasons 1/
1) Tories have stronger leader in @BorisJohnson, who is better campaigner & communicator than @theresa_may;
2) Cautious Tory manifesto;
3) 1 & 2 above allowing Tories to fight more cohesive, disciplined campaign, around 1 core, relentless “get Brexit done” message
2) Cautious Tory manifesto;
3) 1 & 2 above allowing Tories to fight more cohesive, disciplined campaign, around 1 core, relentless “get Brexit done” message
4) This is imp, as election isn't solely a Brexit election, but it's more of a Brexit election than 2017;
5) Creates a problem for Corbyn; whose neutral stance has shone light on his fence sitting;
6) His low personal ratings are unlikely to recover (anti-semitism row today)
5) Creates a problem for Corbyn; whose neutral stance has shone light on his fence sitting;
6) His low personal ratings are unlikely to recover (anti-semitism row today)
7) @UKLabour hasn't yet benefited from its manifesto launch, as it did in 2017;
8) Labour has gone backwards since 2017, retaining the support of 65% of people who backed it then (the Tories have 85% of theirs)
8) Labour has gone backwards since 2017, retaining the support of 65% of people who backed it then (the Tories have 85% of theirs)
9) All of above mean Tories are comfortably ahead among working class voters, suggesting they will capture enough of their Labour-held target seats in the North & Midlands which voted Leave in 2016;
10) Lib Dems are surprisingly making little headway in this election
ENDS
10) Lib Dems are surprisingly making little headway in this election
ENDS
