"We expect moderately better economic and earnings growth, and therefore decent risky asset returns." bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-…
Howard Marks:
"If riskier investments necessarily delivered higher returns they wouldn’t be risky.” oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-s…
"Upon factoring in lower expectations for global growth, inflation, and interest rates, the annualized return for the U.S. equity market over the next 10 years is in the 3.5%-5.5% range. U.S. growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1% in 2020."
Guessing is fun!
"Our top down approach suggest 6% revenue growth and 8.5% earnings growth supported by a more than 3% reduction in shares outstanding through buybacks. S&P 500 target: 3,400 (+9.5%) with 19x Trailing PE."
Guesses that include math and numbers seem more credible!